February was pretty disappointing...

For various reasons (laziness, winter break, weather, etc) I didn't make enough time to play.  My win rate in those hands was adequate, but I would like to do better.  I went thru several long stretches without winning at showdown.  Obviously, there are things beyond my control, but in reflecting back on the month, I don't think I focused enough on what I was trying to accomplish with my play this month.  I was too focused on "squeezing in hands" whenever I could.  I suppose if poker wasn't my "job," I probably would have just not played a few of those days.  And like a job, whenever there is a day you're not looking forward to being at work, you sort of go through the motions, but aren't really "there."  I was up like 20K (not including the 4K I dropped on MTTs) and my win rate was under 2ptbb over 95K or so hands (iirc).  I now use two computers, so I'll post graphs and tables in the next day or two (as I have to export from one computer to put on the other).  I'll try to focus a little more this month.

I turned one year older!!! Once you're over 40, every birthday you're just that much closer to death.  I'm just kidding of course.  Well, I suppose you actually *are* one year closer to death, but that's not how I feel about getting older.  I'm a big believer if carpe diem - seize the day.  A big believer - not so great on the implementation tho.  Somehow, being 40 seemed okay (it kind of rolls off the tongue), but being 41 seems "old."  Kind of like how the 40 year old virgin is okay, but a 41 year old virgin just sounds pathetic.  Obviously I'm turning into CrazyFly.

March is a new month!

WHAT'S FOR DESSERT?

My sister-in-law ("SlawFly") picks up the best desserts.  Manhattan is so large I have no idea how she finds these boutique bakeries.  Anyway, these are bite-sized cupcakes she bought from Baked by Melissa.  $37.50 for 50 cupcakes is a little steep (because you need like 5-10 of them to get full), but they do make for great presentation.  (Out of the box, obviously)

Last week three of my former brokers emailed me to see how I'm doing.  Back in my working days, I traded primarily US interest rates, but my main focus was not direction (whether rates were going up or down), or slope (whether the 5 year would rally more than the 2 year).  I traded primarily curvature (how the 3 year rate moves compared to the 2 year and 4 year, etc.).  Trading curvature requires you to trade in four times as many securities as trading directionally, because it has to be expressed as a butterfly structure.

Any of you who watch the market news knows that looking at interest rate directional changes most days is like watching paint dry.  Interest rate slope moves even less (because you need the different rates to not move parallel to each other).  Interest rate curvature trading is basically the nadir of watching nothing happening (because you need two different slopes to not move in parallel).  So when you trade something that barely moves, you need to put trades on in huge size to make any sort of money.  On top of that, I had a preference to put on "double butterflies" (hence my poker name) - which is two adjacent butterflies pointing in opposite directions.

To summarize... I needed to trade a multiple of 4x or 8x what a directional interest rate trader would need, and I needed to do trades in unbelievably massive size to make up for the fact that curvature moves less.  It will come as no surprise that one of my nicknames in the office was the "Broker's Wet Dream." My managers would "joke" that they would rather have my brokers' income stream than mine because even though the amounts were comparable, there was no volatility involved with the brokers' income stream.  My coworkers would say if they died and gone to heaven, they would be one of my futures brokers.

Once in a while, I think about going back to work.  I think I have a lot more upside trading than playing poker, and I could probably make more money on average.  I might reconsider if the right opportunity came up, but most places aren't taking as much risk as before and compensation is lower than before.  The main plus tho is that the markets are fairly volatile and choppy, and those are the conditions I generally do the best in.  But... you just can't beat the poker lifestyle - having steady income (relatively) and spending time with the family whenever you want to.  I made a lot of good friends from work and it's always good to hear from someone in your past.  But sometimes, I wonder if it's because to them I figuratively look like --->

Of course, in real life, I look more like "Beat Anorexia" Man.  But I will have the courtesy not to post that photo again.

[This post is just a ruse to post a nude photo of Jessica Alba - to get a little sex appeal going.  Don't tell Mrs. Fly]

Apparently, the poker gods don't want me to play poker this month.  It snowed 8+ inches today and school was cancelled, so I had to change my original plans, which was to play poker all day while G was in school.  Instead, we played some Super Mario Bros. while we were waiting for the snow to stop coming down.  I can not tell you how humiliating it is to get your ass kicked over and over (and over and over) again by a 6 year old (over and over).  Being a life-long video gamer, I would consider myself above-average on that front, but playing arcade style games with multiple buttons is horrifically difficult for me (Defender, Mortal Kombat, Street Fighter, etc).  Isn't there supposed to be like a 8-16 year period where the dad kicks the son's ass at all things?  Where's mine?!?  Next thing you know, my neighbor's 13 year old daughter is going to come over and start beating me up for my lunch money.

Mercifully, it stopped snowing and some of the neighborhood kids came by to go sledding in our back yard.  We have a pretty large back yard, and it's a little sloped so it makes for a great sledding hill.  I took D out and was exhausted after carrying him around a few hours.  So I was thinking about how tired I get and I have come to the conclusion that: (4 hours with D) = (8 hours with G) = (12 hours with Mrs. Fly) = (16 hours of playing poker).  Since I'm a "numbers" person, I liked how the four things in my life worked out so evenly.  I could play an absurd amount of poker if I had no other responsibilities.  Now if only the poker gods would cooperate.

POKER

As a regular on Full Tilt, I get free access to Stoxpoker and Cardrunners. I saw two of Rick Mask's (Stox) videos the other night and they were better than I was expecting. He's definitely closing the gap on Sean Nolan (DeucesCracked) as the best NLFR midstakes video maker. To be fair, I haven't seen any of Nolan's recent videos though, but that'll change once I start exercising. It looks like he made an epic 12 video series on 3betting since I was last a member.  Considering everything I know about 3betting can be summed up in one 30 minute video, I guess I have to watch now.  I chat with them occasionally on 2+2. FWIW, here is a list of the videos makers I really like (not in any order):

* JCL (CardRunners)
* IRock (CardRunners)
* Nolan (DeucesCracked)
* FoxwoodsFiend (DeucesCracked)
* Baluga Whale (DeucesCracked)
* Risk Mask (Stox)

When I was starting out, I also liked DJ Sensei and fslexcduck's (Deuces Cracked) hand analysis videos because you could watch them on your itouch. I also want to try BlueFirePoker - their lineup looks amazing.  It's almost making me looking forward to working out.  Almost.

I lost a friend today.  It used to greet me in the mornings and brightened up my day for the past few months.  But Mrs. Fly said it was time to get rid of it... last year's Christmas tree.  If I had my way, I would keep a Xmas tree in the corner of our living room year-round.  It looks nice, smells nice, reminds me of the festive holidays, brings some of the outdoors indoors and it's really not bothering anyone.  Altho we haven't watered it for about 2 months now and now it kind of looks like the Peanuts Xmas tree.  That's what happens when you ask a 6 year old to water it every morning.  Pretty sure we're not getting him a dog any time soon.

It took me like 2 minutes to get rid of the tree.  As you may have gathered from my posts, I am one lazy mofo.  I prefer to call it "laid back" or "easy going," but that's just word choice.  As we speak, Mrs. Fly is tidying up and I'm sitting here drinking my tea and writing my blog.  Man!  Is she going to be pissed off when she reads this.  Fortunately, I find that kind of sexy in a woman (in small doses).  Normally, we get rid of the tree in January like everyone else, but "we" put it off because of the sprained ankle, snow, etc.  Now I have to call the garbage company to pick it up and recycle it.  I can just hear the guy saying, "WTF?!?  It's almost March dude.  What's wrong with you?!?"  Or was the Mrs. Fly saying that to me the other day?

WHAT'S FOR DINNER?

I have no idea why lamb is not more popular in the US.  Now that I think about it, I don't think it's popular in Asia or Latin America either.  It's really a shame, because it's got great flavor and is a nice change of pace for the beef/chicken/pork trio.  Whenever we go out to a party or event and they serve baby lamb chop hors d'oeuvres, the Flys and a few European and Oceanian couples are furtively chowing down like we just found Al Capone's vault and don't want anyone else to know.  But in reality, people here just don't like lamb.  I can see why people wouldn't like mutton, because like other gamey meats it might take getting used to.  But good lamb has a cleaner taste.  We didn't really eat much lamb until we went to Australia and New Zealand.  The lamb there was incredible and really opened our eyes.  So if you're going to try it for the first time, don't get the local lamb - try the imported one first.

Mrs. Fly tried to have the lamb drippings fall on the bed of rice, like they do at Turkish restaurants.  Mrs. Fly is not shy about using animal fat.  The rice was good, but nowhere near as good as the ones in the Turkish restaurants.  I have no idea what those guys do - they must render the fat off an entire flock sheep to get the rice that flavorful. Anyway, no complaints.

Looks like we're going to Disney World without the littlest guy!  We also decided to stay at the Animal Kingdom villas so that we can get a 1 bedroom suite.  Normally I'm not big on spending extra money on something we don't need, but Mrs. Fly reminded me that we would have many more entertainment options if Grant was in another room.  Sold!

On the poker front, I don't think I'm going to hit 35K hands this week.  I put in a good session yesterday, but I'm feeling a little unfocused today.  I also found out I have something to do tomorrow and we're having guests over Saturday and Sunday.  I feel like such a slacker.  But other than self-imposed "short-term goals," there are many options with respect to treating poker as work.  On "off"-days, I can watch a few videos, do some research, or play some other games instead (like Rush 1/2, which for me takes a little less thought).

POKER - INTRESTING HAND

Oddly, I haven't played in a lot of interesting hands this week.  This comes to mind because it set the new record for how much money I lost on a bluff.  I only had a few orbits on villain, and I think his stats were like 20/10, so I just assumed he was "normal."  I really couldn't see how he could limp with a PP as high as 77 or 88 from MP, so I put him on a 1 pair type hand or missed draw that I could take him off.  I have an overpair in this spot a lot, and the 4s pairing counterfeits any 2 pair hand he could have.  Anyway, it just shows the importance of being able to put people on a CORRECT range.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($2000)
UTG ($6000)
UTG+1 ($1050)
MP1 ($1500)
MP2 ($2378)
MP3 ($2144)
CO ($2054.10)
Button ($4797)
SB ($2147)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
2 folds, MP1 calls $20, 3 folds, Button calls $20, SB calls $10, Hero bets $100, MP1 calls $80, 2 folds

Flop: ($240) 7, 8, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $160, MP1 calls $160

Turn: ($560) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $340, MP1 calls $340

River: ($1240) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $920, MP1 calls $900 (All-In)

Total pot: $3040 $3
Rake:

Main pot: $3040 between Hero and MP1, won by MP1
Results:
Hero had K, A (one pair, fours).
MP1 had 7, 7 (full house, sevens over fours).
Outcome: MP1 won $3037

Doh!

I was feeling a little guilty for planning to leave D with grandma for 5 days while the rest of the family party it up in Orlando.  But I realized that he really monopolizes my time while when I'm with the boys.  When he was in the "blob" stage (where he kept himself entertained), G and I could engage in a whole bunch of activities.  Now that D can walk around and is developing a bossy personality, he basically stalks us.  I was telling Mrs. Fly that I wanted to have a "G and Daddy Day" at least a few times a month so G doesn't feel jealous or neglected.  Anyway, I convinced myself this is just a week-long G & Daddy Day.  But I'm going to sleep on it to make sure it feels right in the morning.  As Mrs. Fly and I always say, D's a pain in the ass but we love that little guy!

POKER

Recently, the topic of online bankroll (how much money you keep online) came up in the poker forums. Personally, I don't feel comfortable having more than 40-50 buy-ins ("BIs") online. If you're a pretty good cash game player, you will almost never need more than 50 BIs (10-16 to multitable, 25-30 for downswing, 5-10 for inventory).  I guess if you're super paranoid, you can keep 60-75.  There are tons of people who keep HUNDREDS of BIs online, and I thought I heard this high stakes SnG (single table tournament) player keeps over $1million online. That's just crazy.  You never want to have all of your financial eggs in one basket.  Just ask the lifers at Enron and Lehman who lost everything.

For one thing, money on the poker site earns no interest, dividends or income. Strike one. The account is not insured - you get "free" insurance with most bank and brokerage deposits. Strike two. There is a nonzero chance that you will not be able to get your money out (any adverse legislation, the site going under, etc). Strike three.  Oh, and people's accounts get hacked from time to time, and the poker sites seem fairly unresponsive.  I'm not sure what game we're playing any more.  Cricket?

It's really like keeping tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars at your local Dunkin Donuts. Yeah, they're a reasonably solid company, but is that really where you want to keep a chunk of your net worth?  Funny how I keep coming back to donuts.

What ever happened to "making your money work for you"? I think the only arguments for keeping a lot of money online is if you plan on making a move up in stakes, or if it helps you psychologically. But it's not like you can't redeposit if you hit a really bad stretch (although it can be a pain).  If it takes a week or two to reload your account because you went into a massive downswing, that time off may not be the worst thing in the world.

Now that I've gotten tournaments out of the way for a few months, I can focus more on working on some of the leaks in my cash game.  My win rate this month is around 2ptbb, which is a little low.  I'm not sure if playing tournaments simultaneously is negatively affecting my game, or the table conditions have worsened, or it's just variance, or I suck, or some combination of all of the above.

We're trying to decide of we want to take G to Disney World for his Spring Break in April.  We would have to leave D with his grandmother and aunt - otherwise, everyone will be miserable.  How someone so cute can be so aggravatingly loud is just unbelievable - I was talking about D, not Mrs. Fly.  Two and a half years ago, we took G to Disney World when he was a little under 4 and that was the most miserable vacation I ever went on.  We went with the intention of buying a time share in Animal Kingdom, but after that horrific experience we decided not to.  To this day, I have no idea how a little kid could not like Disney World - all he wanted to do was stay in the hotel room.  Anyway, since then we decided to just take the kids on short road trips until they got to be like 5.  G is 6.5, so this has been long overdue.

The room rates seem pretty reasonable - a night at Animal Kingdom with a savannah view is only $250.  Some friends of ours are going as well, so that should make for a better time.  Mrs. Fly is giving me a day off, so maybe I'll play some poker outside with my glass of wine, watching the animals walk by the balcony.

POKER

The subject of hand discussion has come up a few times recently. A bunch of regulars started a facebook hand discussion group. The mid-high stakes full ring forum has had problems getting good hand discussions going. I enjoy hand discussion as much as the next person, but I find them to be not as useful above small stakes (up to $1/$2 blinds). This is because the hands are so opponent and game flow dependent, and usually not enough information is presented about the hero and villain to make an adequate determination.  Small stakes and below, people still make fundamental errors, so hand analysis can be more useful.

Also, I'm a big believer of randomizing plays.  Frequently in hand discussions, people will say something like "that is never a bluff," or "villain's not representing anything, so it must be a bluff."  I would argue that those are the best situations to bluff or bet for value (respectively).  I vaguely remember some high stakes pro saying that there is always only one right play for a given situation.  This may be true, but you never want to be predictable - that just turns your hand face up, which is never a good thing.  Anyway, if people are balancing their ranges well, it makes hand discussion that much more difficult.

Well, my agonizing foray into the world of multitable tournaments is mercifully over.  I was booted off of the last event of FTOPS, and there won't be another for 3 months.  There are many tournaments daily, but I just wanted to play a bunch of the FTOPS tourneys (which generally tend to be a little bigger).  Another $989 down the drain and STILL no cashes.  I actually had a decent stack at the FTOPS Main Event, but I ran into AA blind vs blind.  In the Sunday Mulligan, I had an above average stack somewhat close to cashing and my KK ran into QQ preflop, but the flop came down KQQ.  Bite me!

I played 14 tournaments, spent $3,924 in entry fees, and got zero cashes. In the process, I ran T$93.4K (tournament dollars) under ev, which would have translated to making $2.9K, rather than being $3.9K in the hole.  Bite me!!!

Well, I now have 3 months to do some more work on these tournaments.  I actually feel pretty good about my play, but I think some more video watching is in order, as well as putzing around with some tournament software.

I knew I was going to be taking some time off this week, so I didn't get in many hands.  Next week's going to be the 35K hand week, even tho I'm busy Monday night.  I've played 64K hands so far this month (plus another 4K hands from Rush Poker and 2K hands from tourneys).  I'd really like to get solidly over 100K hands for the month.

Ugh.  I'm too fried to write any more today.

My first Viewer Mail segment...


Q: when have you started playing? 

A: I started maybe when I was 11 or 12.  The local kids and my brother would all get together and play cards (when we weren't breaking the neighbors' windows playing stickball).  I wasn't good, but I wasn't terrible either. Mostly we played 5 card draw and 7 card stud.  I went a long time without playing poker from junior high until I went to business school.  I played every few months with the guys from school and later coworkers.  I wasn't very good, but I was better than most of them so I was a regular winner.

Q: how long it took for you to become that successful?
A: Still waiting...  If Tom Dwan and Phil Ivey are "10"s, I think I'm a "3."  I see no reason why I can't do at least as well eventually, so there's plenty of upside.  And I still have a ton of things I'm looking to work on.  For the first year of playing online poker, I really had no idea how poorly I was playing.  I was still making decent money, but it was mostly thru the kindness of worse players. 

Q: what were the moments when you feel you improved the most (most groundbreaking concepts, realisations)?
A: I started playing better last summer.  I finally "correctly" started incorporating 3/4/5 betting to my game.  Earlier in the year, I had been doing something incredibly dumb which caused me to lose money in that area for months.  Towards the end of last year, I started looking at hand ranges more and fold equity in various situations and it's still a work in progress.

Q: what do you feel are the most important things to do to keep improving (ex. session reviews, studyng literature,videos., studying particular opponents)
A: In order of importance:
1a) Videos are my main source of new poker ideas.  It's always good to see how your opponents may play and what your opponents are thinking.  When I watch a video, I always ask myself what I would be thinking if I were the villain.  I try to watch at least 1-2 videos a week. When I start working out next month, I'll probably be able to watch 3-4 a week.
1b)  I do most of my session review as the session is going on.  I may highlight certain hands for further analysis later, but for the most part I like thinking about the hands right after they happen (assuming there's nothing pressing going on). 
2) There's plenty of literature for beginners, but once you get to an intermediate level, I think print books are useless.  I hear some of the $700-$3K ebooks are good, but I'm not sure if they are worth the money.  I also like trying to figure things out for myself, which is why I don't have a coach. 
3) I spend virtually no time studying opponents.  Partly because I know a lot of the regs from 2+2 and am not really looking to go crazy vs them.  But mostly it's because there are enough randoms to go around that I haven't felt the need to analyze the regs that carefully.  Of course, when I start playing more 5/10+, I will have to do that, as the games get more reg-filled.

Q: do you mix poker and booze?
A: Every day.  I always have a glass or two of wine (later post).  Sometimes I'll have a beer, hard lemonade or port instead, depending on my mood.  But I never have more than 2 glasses a session, so it has no effect on my judgement.
 
Q: what music do you listen to whilst grinding?

I have over 600 CDs - 90+% of it is a time capsule of horrifically bad pop/dance music from the 80s and early 90s.  Over half my collection is what I call "bimbo pop" (Madonna, Belinda Carlisle, Bangles, Celine Dion, Abba, etc).  I really prefer the sound of women's voices to men's.  A quarter is basically "eurotrash" dance music (New Order, Depeche Mode, Modern Talking, Yaz, etc).  The rest is classical, jazz, sountracks, and other music to try and make the bulk of my music more acceptable (Rolling Stones, U2, Springsteen, etc).  But I like all kinds of music - I've been using itunes to round out my selection (heavy metal, R&B, country, etc). 

I used to watch TV while playing, but that was terrible for my concentration.  I find that my concentration is better when I have music on than off.  That's obviously going to vary from person to person.  When I was in college, I had a hard time studying in the library because it was so quiet that I found it distracting whenever someone turned a page or moved a chair.  But obviously tons of people find the library a good place to study.

The ski condo was nice.  It was right across the street from Mt. Snow, so sitting in their living room, it looked like you were staring at the trail map.  You could see practically every trail.  The kids had a great time, and we don't get a chance to spend time with the owners that much in a non-crowd setting, so it was a nice two days. 

If I didn't have kids and loved skiing, I could totally see myself buying a ski house and playing poker during the evenings.  My brother has a friend who quit his job to become a professional ski bum.  I wonder if he plays online poker.  I hear vacation homes are dirt cheap now because of the economy.  But since I have kids and am not crazy about skiing, we're more likely to get something in Orlando or Vegas, assuming we ever *do* buy.  TBH, I like the idea of renting houses more - so you can go to different places all the time.

Skiing on the bad ankle wasn't a good idea, but Mrs. Fly doesn't ski and I wasn't going to have G ski by himself so I gave it a go.  I knew I was in trouble when I struggled to get the ski boot on.  I'm basically a beginner and my skills are very rudimentary, so I had even more trouble turning on the bad ankle than last year.  Fell four times in 1 hour.  Oh well.  Mercifully, G has successfully inherited the lazy-ass gene from me and he wanted to go back after an hour.  I'm basically back home in one piece (albeit with a sorer ankle), so I can't say it was too bad. 

I learned an important physics lesson.  Not "an object in motion stays in motion..." or "force = mass * gravity."  The important lesson is... what I will henceforth refer to as DoubleFly's Law of Gravity:

where x = waist size, y = hip size and g(x) = gravitational pull.  For the non-math people out there, it says that as your waist size approaches your hip size, the gravitational pull on one's pants becomes infinite.  Just another reason to lose some weight.  Sigh.

Which ironically leads us into...

WHAT'S FOR DINNER?

One of the best thing about marrying a Southern gal is occasionally, I get real comfort food like fried steak with milk gravy.  She made some cabbage pasta thing I vaguely remember eating, but when you're scarfing down fried steak with gravy, you really don't remember anything else.  It would be like chatting with Megan Fox at a bar and then asking me what her chubby friend standing next to her was like.  Who knows?  Who cares?

[Edit:  I am just joking about the chubby friend.  No hate mail please]

We just got back from our ski trip and I'll post a longer report tomorrow.  The tl;dr (too long; didn't read) version is:  We had a good time, especially the kids.  Trying to ski on a bad ankle was a fishy idea.  I had a crash course refresher in physics.

POKER

I decided to embrace Rush poker.  I hated Rush poker, but it's starting to grow on me.  It's definitely taking some of the fish and weaker regulars away from 2/4+.  But it looks like it's here to stay.  The big positives I see for me are:

* I have something to play.  When the number of 2/4+ tables fall below 16, there are still 100+ players on Rush, which means there are almost 50 tables.  The highest Rush tables are 1/2, but I think I can sustain a high enough win rate to make those hours productive.  Assuming I make the right adjustments, I think my hourly rate can drop less than 30%.

*  I can play on my laptop.  I no longer need to be connected to a 30" monitor to see all my tables.  Three or four Rush tables gets me about the same number of hands per hour as 12-16 regular tables.  So I can play anywhere - even on vacation.  I ordered another Belkin gamepad just for this purpose.

* For someone who likes playing different table conditions, this game can't be beat.  On a typical 2/4+ table, most players have very similar stats.  In Rush, you get a huge mix of strategies, from super-tight to super-aggressive.  And the table mix changes every hand because the players are always getting shuffled around.

* I can get on and off in a hurry.  Sometimes, it can take up to 10 minutes to get on all my tables, and another 5 to get off of all my tables, but it literally takes no time to get on and only a few minutes to get off.  So I can squeeze in a short hour or two session.

I'm still waiting for the thrid party technology to catch up.  Holdem Manager's HUD seems a little buggy and Table Ninja also has a few things to iron out (like clicking the speed fold button).  The regular games are superior for strategy and game play, but as a "poker pro" I have to adapt to the game conditions around me.

I can't believe I'm in the fourth week of the blog and I'm still posting on a daily basis. To be honest, I thought I would have run out of things to say by now and would be posting only two or three times a week. I still have tons of topics I haven't touched on yet, so I'll stay on the post-a-day schedule for the foreseeable future.  I'm basically taking all the time I would have spent reading and posting in the 2+2 poker forums and channeling that in a more constructive way - I think.

Let me know what type of posts you like, so I can get a better idea of what content I should target.  I changed the default feedback comments to "funny," "interesting," and "meh."  Of course, if I get too many "meh" responses, I may have to reword that again to save myself the embarrassment.  So save the "meh" comments for when it's really "meh."  Or you can give me feedback in the comments section, via 2+2 PM or email. 

The Fly family should be sleeping at our friend's ski house as you read this.  I've never been to Mt. Snow (Vermont), so it should be interesting.  My ankle's still a little stiff, but I figure, how bad can it be with ski boots?  I'm not a regular skier, so this may be a "famous last words" moment.

I've only been skiing once (last year) in the last 15+ years, but the skis now are so good that I felt as comfortable as I ever had on them.  And the couple we're staying with are lots of fun - the guy's brother imports really good tequila.  That pretty much says it all.

Three more tournaments.  Three more goose eggs. Another $1,300 down the drain. I'm definitely playing a few more - especially the Main Event on Sunday. But yesterday was the first day I got a sick feeling about playing these tournaments - probably because I didn't play well and got myself in some awkward spots.  Thankfully, I had a good day at the cash games to more than make up for it.

I don't see how anyone can make a living playing tournaments.  You can go an absurdly long period of time without a decent cash.  You need to get in the top 10% just to get back 2+x your money (meaning for you to win an amount equal to your entry fee - not that you win twice your entry fee) and the top 2% to get 5+x your money.  Even a really good player doesn't cash like 80-85% of the time.  But I guess it beats buying a lottery ticket. 

Of course, first place is usually 25% of the prize pool, so that keeps the suckers like me coming back.  The FTOPS Main Event on Sunday has a minimum $2.5 million prize pool, so first place should be over $500K.  If I win, the degeneracy that follows would make the blog *really* interesting.

HANDS

Sometimes, when you "run good" (not a grammatical error - a poker saying), you can make an unfortunate misclick preflop and still win the pot.  I still have no idea what I thought I had to click "call."  I'm well known for confusing Q9 for QQ.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($1002)
UTG ($315)
MP1 ($1178)
MP2 ($1594)
CO ($890)
Hero (Button) ($1112)
SB ($1005)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 4
4 folds, Hero bets $25, SB calls $20, BB raises to $100, Hero calls $75, SB calls $75

Flop: ($300) K, 6, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $160, Hero calls $160, 1 fold

Turn: ($620) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($620) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $350, 1 fold

Total pot: $620 | Rake: $3
Main pot: $620 returned to Hero

Results:
Hero didn't show K, 4 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $617

My siblings, Mrs. Fly and my mother got me a framed print over the weekend - C.M. Coolidge's "A Friend in Need."  What poker office would be complete without it?  I always thought this was a single painting, but apparently it's part of a collection that he did called "Dogs Playing Poker."  A link to the other prints are in this Gallery and a description is in Wikipedia.  Because I play online poker and I see players as a bunch of numbers, I'm debating putting little stickers on the glass to make it look something like this (credit to DukeMuscle from 2+2).  But I would have to be super-bored to do that though, and I'm a little too anal about defacing a work of art.  So we'll see.

POKER

I was thinking some more about the -T$47K in all-in ev in my 7 tournaments, and I made the following calculations.  I paid $1,637 for the 7 tournament entry fees.  I (and all the other entrants of those tournaments) received T$26K in tournament dollars over those tournaments.  So each T$ is equal to 6.3 cents.  That means I'm $2,959 below ev.  In other words, had the flips gone "as expected," I should be UP $1,322 in tournaments, rather than DOWN $1,637.  I only played 1,015 tournament hands, so that's a great win rate.  Maybe I'm not a fish!

The problem with that estimation is that I need to be able to get some decent cashes for that estimate to be valid. If my bubble play or shorthanded final table play is sub-par, I will never realize those ev gains. I played a lot of one table tournaments and held my own, so I think I should be okay.

This may be a good way to empirically analyze tournament results.  Obviously, there are tons of other types of luck (as I had listed in a previous post), but I think this is a step forward from just saying "I'm unlucky."  I'll have to think about it more as my tourney study progresses.  Obviously I need to study.