I had noticed the last few weeks that FT funds are now trading between 20 and 25 cents on the dollar.  So a bunch of people on the FT thread were discussing what FT money was actually worth.  Here is a paraphrasing of my original posts on 2+2:

Sadly, the markets don't lie. So 25 cents is probably somewhat "close" to fair value. I think this price is a little skewed because most people who would like to buy at 25 cents already have a ton of money on there (like maybe Galfond, Durrr, regs, etc). But it's not going to be *that* much higher. Not 50 cents. What I find interesting about 25 cents is that it is so low, if given a choice, I would MUCH prefer to just take the full money as extra rakeback (like an additional 50% on top of the regular rakeback, so we would get close to 100% rakeback). I think most of us could make the money owed to us in less than a year, possibly two (obviously there are exceptions). It would only take me 2 months (bankroll leverage, baby!).  Of course this assumes FT will reopen to the US. I still think FT is a good buy (unless that moron Bitar thinks he needs to still run the company), and it could be a win-win if the potential buyer can pay the players back in future rake.

It's just speculation, but I don't see how a deal gets done without Bitar stepping down. I also don't see why any buyer would want to accept $150mil of player debt (probably a lot more since I thought $150 was the amount of US player assets). Considering how idiotic FT management is, it wouldn't shock me if they didn't even have all of the non-US funds whole (i.e. they spent some of the non-US player's money that they weren't supposed to). Because if you were a potential buyer, would you make everyone (US and non-US) whole? The shortfall could be anywhere from $150-300mil. If it was me, I most certainly would not. But I think offering all former players a credit is a very good gesture. 

I've never worked in private equity, but I do have a pretty good sense of estimating business parameters.  And if I was a potential "investor" (and I'm not) here is what I would be thinking:

* The FT software is the best in the industry and they have the rights to Rush, which was the best poker invention since the hole card cam.

* I refuse to "invest" in any company with the current management intact.  There is obviously a lot of waste and incompetence going on, and I'm not trusting those bozos with more money.

* I would be interested in purchasing the assets of the company (maybe just license the software), but would have no desire to participate in their legal woes or their outstanding obligations to current players.  I would want to start a new company.

* My plan for getting the players back would involve me offering 40-50% additional rakeback to current players, until their accounts are paid in full.  Maybe kick in an extra 10% afterwards to massage any leftover bad feelings.  Really, who is going to refuse this offer?  *I'm* not the one who lost your money - I'm the one who's trying to give you a chance to get your money that SOME OTHER PERSON lost.  How can you realistically expect anyone to pay off someone else's debts?  Not for $150-300 mil.  I don't see how any rational person would have any bitter feelings towards the new company.

* Current FT affiliates get screwed.  Sorry - I'm a new company now.  Wow - I just increased my take by 15% of rake, which is going straight to the players.

* I do not have enough information to determine if I will re-open in the US.  But the player credit will be there whenever the US allows online poker again.

This is all just random musings.  I think it's a reasonable idea for the players.  For me, 20-25 cents on the dollar is not something I'm going to care about.  I'd rather just ride that baby down to zero.  But tell me I'll have a chance to get all of it back in a short amount of time AND I get to play Rush again, and now we're talking!  If I thought this was likely, you would see FT funds head north of 50 cents (assuming the "credits" are transferrable) and I would be buying.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the current management is going to want to step down.  Right now, FT isn't worth very much and taking an 8 figure amount to GTFO can't be too bad for a bunch of chimps.  My advice to Ray Bitar comes from my good friend Kenny...

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away and know when to run.