One of the good guys I know on 2+2, Sparky (he did the dog guest blog post and writes for LifeFish), was saying how frustrated he was getting with poker.  Apparently he is now down over 100buy-ins under EV lifetime.  So for the non-poker players out there, that means that if he's played mostly NL400, he's made $40,000 less than he should have.  That's a pretty huge number - probably around the 40th percentile of the ANNUAL household income in the US.  So although I think of poker primarily as a game of skill, there's definitely some luck involved.

Part of playing poker for a living is dealing with those stretches where things just don't seem to go right.  So here are my tips to deal with run-bad:

1) Vent.  Preferably, this shouldn't involve anything expensive - like punching your 30" monitor.  But whatever you need to do - punching bag, talking to friends, starting a thread on 2+2 where you'll get berated by the community, popping in that VHS of some fine equine luvin' ...  whatever it takes.  It's okay to be angry, frustrated, depressed, horny (eh hem),... whatever.  It's like when you have to let one rip.  If enough pressure builds up and you try and hold it in too long, your head will explode.  It's true - New England Journal of Medicine, Issue 350.

2) Take some time off.  Pro poker players have a higher threshhold than most for dealing with agonizing beats.  But sometimes, you'll reach a point where the day-after-day of pummeling will wear on the best of us.  Isn't it sweet that we're in a profession where you can take as much time off as you need?  Nothing wrong with clearing your head and taking some time off to enjoy an activity that won't cause your blood pressure to go thru the roof.

3) Reasess.  Now that you've cleared your head, here's the thing you probably didn't want to hear...  You need to carefully examine whether *everything* was run-bad.  (later post)

I ended up getting the following from Dell for $649 plus tax (no shipping). 

  * Inspiron 620, Intel Core i5-2310 processor(6MB Cache, 2.90GHz).  Like I said before - a midrange processor.  You can look up computer processor speeds on this site:  www.cpubenchmark.net  I found it very useful when looking at what's out there.  My old processor is about half as fast, and probably comparable to a current low-end CPU.  CPU prices are almost exponential, so I really don't think it's worth it for *poker* to get a high-end processor.  I'm going to get a new machine in 2 years anyway. 

  * 6GB DDR3 SDRAM,1333MHZ.  4 GB is about as low as I would go for poker.  Memory is cheap, so get as much as you want.  But again, when I know I'm getting another machine in 2 years, I generally don't get *that* much more than I need.

  * 1TB Serial ATA 2 Hard Drive 7200RPM.  500 GB is as low as I would go for poker.  I used over 400GB on my last computer (lots of pixels on those horse movies).

  * AMD Radeon HD 6450 1GB DDR3.  Make sure your video card can support at least one 30" monitor (or whatever monitor configuration you are planning to use) - many only support up to 24".

  * Dell 21.5-inch Wide ST2220LB Flat Panel Monitor.  I didn't really need the monitor, but it was only $100 and it was full 1080p, so I just got it.  Who can't use another TV nowadays?  My office looks a bit retarded with 4 large monitors on my desk (30", 24", 24" and 21.5" - two of which can be used as TVs), but it's super-functional.

Dell was having a sale that ended last week, but they have sales pretty regularly.  You can get an extra 2-4% back if you go thru a site like ebates.  Twenty bucks for a few mouseclicks isn't bad, and if you are a shortstacker that's a full day's worth of shoving for you.

The last 5 or 6 desktops I got have been from Dell - you can probably save a few bucks getting some no-name brand, but TBH, computers are so absurdly cheap now that I just can't be bothered to looking around and reading reviews of various brands.  You can also save a few bucks building your own machine, but that's not really something I want to spend time doing.  I'll also be "losing" money on it if you factor in the time I would have to spend on it, so it's really something you should do if you enjoy the process.  All I can say about Dell is they don't suck (which is different from "they are awesome"), and they have decent customer support (except for that one time they routed me to Mumbai for an hour long phone call).

At the end of the day, it only cost me a buy-in and I'm pretty happy with the equipment, so that's all that matters.  Now I can focus on furious mouseclicking.

Ahhh...  The happiest day in a computer gamer's life...  The day he gets his new computer!  Having bought about 15 computers in my lifetime for my personal use, I have some opinions about buying a computer.  Here are my thoughts on buying a machine for poker:

* you're generally not going to need a high-end computer.  No need to spend $2-4K on some Alienware machine unless you are into some other graphics intensive games.  Have you seen the poker table graphics lately?  If you told me the graphics were from two DECADES ago, I would believe it.  And I like it that way - no need to have distracting or CPU-intensive graphics to slow down my multi-tabling.

* My general computer strategy is this - I always buy a "mid-range" machine and expect it to last about "4 years" - "2 years" as my #1 play computer and "2 years" as my backup and home computer.  I keep the software on my poker computer to a minimum (partly for speed and partly to reduce the chance of getting any kind of malware, viruses, etc).  The backup computer is where I do things like blogging, reading 2+2 and storing my libraries of horse porn.  The kids also like sitting with me sometimes while I am working, so I let them watch Netflix or TV on the computer I'm not using.  Occasionally, I'll hear, "Daddy, what's that horse doing to that man?"  But figuring out creative explanations for it is all part of "good" parenting.

* I also usually have 2 laptops.  The old one just died a few weeks ago, but I think I may wait a while to get another.  I'm thinking I may go ipad this time (not for poker ldo).  In our house, Mrs. Fly uses the laptop as "her" computer.  I have a hard time playing on a 19" monitor.  Call me spoiled, but when you are used to having a 30" monitor, it just feels really claustrophobic trying to play as many tables as I do on a small screen.  And hooking up my 24" to the laptop isn't the same.  Laptops are nice when you want to play while you are away, but let's face it, 99% of the time, most of us play in the same place all the time.  I never really have to leave my office - I have two computers, a TV, beverages and snacks.  If they invented a comfortable toilet chair, I would never have to leave my office.

Next... what I ended up buying and my buying suggestions for a poker computer.

Obviously, that hand is villain dependent.  I'm also a big believer in randomizing play to keep opponents off-balanced and your play less predictable.  But here are my general thoughts on the hand:

* A 12% 3bet 6 handed probably means he is 3betting the button from the blinds with almost a 20% range.  66 vs a "top20%" range has 47% equity.  66 is AHEAD of a "top 7%" range plus "top 13%" bluffs with hands too weak to flat.  You are getting 2 to 1 to call and you are IN position.  FOLDING PRE WOULD BE RETARDED!  If you want to fold pre, you might as well just change your sn to "RapeMe."

* So there is some merit in just shoving pre.  I'm not sure if it's *that* +ev - it really depends on what dominating hands you think he calls with.  It's pretty close.  Maybe you do it once in a while for image/shania.

* I prefer to just call the flop.  Sure - there are lots of flops I have to fold on.  But I got 2 to 1 to make the call and 12% of the time, I'm going to have the nuts, and this guy seemed pretty aggressive on the first two streets.  I'm also IN position, so I think there are a reasonable number of post-flop scenarios where I can win the pot (like this one).

* I'm pretty sure on that flop, villain is going to bet 100% of his range.  Wouldn't you?  But this flop rarely hits him.  My equity on the flop is about 55% vs a "top 20%" range, and we know his range is even more full of crap.  I think there is "some" merit in raising and getting it in, but this is really villain-dependent.  Villain in this hand is a relative unknown, so I have no idea what he would do with say KJ here.  If he re-shoves, then raising flop is probably the best play.

* A brick on the turn.  The fact of the matter is, pocket pairs make up a VERY small part of his "20% range."  My equity now is 59% vs his range.  So the question is, do I raise and take it down or let him bluff again?  If he has a made hand, I'm f*cked because there's no way I'm folding.  But that's only like 3-4 percentage points of that 20% range.  Folding turn would be RETARDED - I just told you your equity was 59%, right?  The "standard" play seems to be to let him barrel the river and snap.  Unfortunately, I'm a nit.  Nits don't call 2 streets with less than the near-nuts - I'm assuming he knows this.  I'm also a bit of a calling station (we haven't played many hands, but I'm not sure if he datamines).  The key is, "how likely is he to barrel the river vs a nit?"  His most likely hand is two overcards (6 outs) and unfortunately the turn just gave him 3 more outs, so he has 18% equity even with his un-made hands.  He may have as many as 17 outs.

The break-even would be that he needs to bet about 1/3 of the time WHEN HE MISSES - I'm assuming he bets when he HITS.  His river aggression over a small sample was on the low side, so I did not think he would bet river on another blank - not vs me.  So I shoved the turn, he tanked and folded.  It was only later that I realized it was possible he would have hit the "7" turn and folded the best hand.  Possible - but not something I was counting on. 

These are just *my* thoughts on the hand - I'm curious to see what you think of my analysis.

BTW, I'm using an itouch app called PkrCruncher to do all the calculations.  Check it out.

I had a good DAY of poker the other day - over 9 BIs.  Yes - I am a luckbox.  I don't play as much as I would like, but even for US players, the games can still be profitable.  And if you know enough people, you can figure out ways to cash out fairly easily and quickly.  We all have to work together.  I basically zeroed out the bankroll on one of the Merge skins and have been playing solely on another skin.

As mentioned in the comments section of the previous post, I've so far only sold 5 boxes of popcorn.  Some dude is going to get some unbelievably cheap database coaching.  But this really isn't meant to be any kind of brag post.  I'm a big believer in supporting the institutions that are close to me.  The Cub Scouts seem to be providing a lot of benefits to my son and I want to give a little something back to them.  Many Asian kids tend to be a bit more on the introverted side, and having G talk to people he doesn't know to sell popcorn seems to have given him a little more confidence.

I'm also a big believer in helping out people I know.  So as previously hinted at a few posts ago, I'm going to open up the database coaching raffle to people who don't like popcorn - anyone who buys anything off of the YellowJackets' web site will also be leigible.  They run a sportswear / workwear company and they do a lot of wholesale business with companies and schools.  Their full wholesale site is www.gamesportswear.com and their retail site is www.realityworkwear.com.  They do a lot of team and customized uniforms and will beat any price (for equal items).  Not sure why they have better stuff on the wholesale site, but you can order anything from either site.  Don't be shy about getting that "stylish" HU4ROLLZ varsity jacket.  I suppose you can order from tons of online sites, but all other things being equal, I'm a big believer in supporting the efforts of people around me (even if things aren't so equal).

You can place the order online directly and send me a copy of the receipt, or I'll offer to take your order and accept Merge funds (which would be getting a 15-20% discount - the value has rebounded nicely since the 30% last week) as payment.  I'm getting nothing out of this - just trying to help a friend.  In times like these, it's nice to know you have friends.

I thought I wold try and have a strategy discussion on the blog.  Let me know what you think of the following hand.  Villain is redxbob14, a lag I had never seen before, playing 30/27, with a 12.3% 3bet (mostly resteals) over only 341 hands (about half of them after this hand).  FWIW, WWSF is 55%, AF is 47/30/14 and CBET is 74/63/50.  My image is on the tighter side of TAG (ie nit).

Merge, $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #10609342

Hero (BTN): $1,074.25 (107.4 bb)
SB: $2,329.32 (232.9 bb)
BB: $2,322.73 (232.3 bb)
UTG: $1,130 (113 bb)
MP: $732 (73.2 bb)
CO: $1,000 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 6
3 folds, Hero raises to $26.66, SB raises to $89.98, BB folds, Hero calls $63.32

Flop: ($189.96) 4 9 9 (2 players)
SB bets $94.98, Hero calls $94.98

Turn: ($379.92) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $199.96, Hero ???

There is $580 in the pot after the turn cbet, $200 for me to call and another $689 behind ($889 total).  Do you fold, call or raise?  And why.  If you call, do you call any river?  Post your thoughts in the comments section, and I'll reveal my thoughts in a future post.  FWIW, I like the way I played the hand.  And after some thought, there is a lot of nuance to this hand.  If there isn't much interest in a discussion, I'll just post the results at the bottom of this post.

So a few days into the popcorn sales drive, I look at my email to see who bought popcorn, and all I see are the usual suspects - friends and family.  No poker players.  I know things have been tough with FT and AP/UB shutting down, Cake taking months to process a cashout and with people scrambling to get money off of Merge.  But is it going to kill you to buy a lousy $22 box of popcorn (includes postage) to help a bunch of cub scouts?

Perhaps in my quest for humor, I played down my poker skills a tad too much.   Perhaps I may have undersold the value of my database coaching.  Come around... sit by the fire while I tell you a story...  A week ago while I was playing a bunch of tables, I notice some chatter on one of the tables.  A casual player was saying that I WORKED for Merge Poker because I played so many tables and played "perfectly" - like I knew what all the cards were.  Always made the right fold and always put in money ahead.  He didn't say that about any other reg at the table - just yours truly.  This really happened.  A testimonial... from a fish!  And who knows how many *countless* people are thinking that.  You too can get a *chance* to glean such knowledge from the Master... all for the low price of $22.  Quack quack.

Seriously - no poker player's bought any, so you may get free coaching for as little as $22 (and an awesome box of popcorn - 18 microwaveable packs inside).  I personally prefer the microwaveable kettle corn for $25 - it's a little sweeter.

How many times have you and your lady friend been sitting around with nothing to do after a romantic interlude?  Smoking is so 1981.  Popcorn is the post-coital silence-filler of the new millennium.  And when the time comes for her to take the walk of shame... what more thoughtful way than with a bag of popcorn?  There's also a light version ($22), in case she needs to lose a few.

So to summarize:
* box of 18 tasty microwaveable bags of popcorn for $22-25 ($2 more for delivery confirmation)
* impress the ladies with your sensitivity to the needs of little cub scouts
* a chance to win a database read of your game, worth at least $500 (and waaay more if you are a weaker reg in the games)

Here is a link to the catalog.  You can also send a popcorn donation to our military troops or buy pre-popped popcorn (white chocolate, carmamel, toffee, cheddar).  Don't order online - the prices are higher and the shipping and handling is a rip-off.  I'll have G send it to you (along with a hand-written thank you note) via priority mail.  The prices above include shipping and handling.  And as an added bonus, I'll take Merge transfers (Carbon and Lock) as payment!  I just saw it trade at 70 cents.  That's like getting a 30% discount on the popcorn!  Act now!  Send an email to doubleflypoker@gmail.com with your name and address, and your perferred form of payment.

Not into popcorn?  I'll add another item to the Poker-Master raffle later in the week.

Yesterday was the tenth anniversary of 9/11.  There are some moments you have that stay with you the rest of your life, and that was one of them.  I've been a "New Yorker" most of my life and most of my family and friends are still there.  There are three things that standout to me about that day, other than the deep sense of tragedy:

* Some of my relatives and friends knew I worked on "Wall Street," but did not realize our offices were in midtown, and not downtown.  Midtown Manhattan was basically unaffected.  So they had some frantic moments wondering if I was affected.  I suppose I'm lucky that I did not work at one of the many downtown firms.  I'm also lucky that I did not know anyone personally who died that day.  But having worked in finance, I'm two degrees of separation away from dozens of people who died.  Lots of people who had enormous potential.

* A few months prior to the event, I was given a small amount of capital to start trading.  I had gotten out of business school the year before and had been working on the desk for a good 6 months before they decided to let me trade.  On a trading desk, you have the TV on all the time (usually CNBC).  I find that channel annoying (my head wants to explode every time Rick Santelli comes on), but as proprietary traders, you need to have the news on (unless there's a soccer game on, apparently).  I remember the whole desk was just mesmerized to the TV when the first plane hit.  We had no idea what was going on, since there was no previous precendent for such an explosion.  Because I was still a relative noob, it never occurred to me to sell S&P futures or buy fixed income.  It's kind of like a surgeon who is mesmerized by the sight of gushing blood, without doing anything about it.  My job was to trade, and I lost focus.  So did the all the experienced traders on the desk, because the event was *THAT* surreal.  The big life lesson I took away that day was - no matter what happens, always keep your head.

* Finally and most importantly: You don't f*ck with certain people and certain entities.  The People came back strong.  The City came back strong.  The Country came back strong.  And everyone who f*cked with us are dead.  Was it worth it, bitches?!?

/ post

I know people say this a lot, but kids really grow up fast.  It doesn't seem that long ago I was changing G's diapers, and now he's a young man.  This month, he started the Cub Scouts.  Scouting wasn't very popular in the Northeast (probably because of all the pedophiles), but out here it seems like the outdoors was a little more prevalent in the culture.  Anyway, we thought it was a good way for him to meet even more boys in the area, and develop some good life skills so we signed him up.  Scouting also turns out to be a great way to meet other active parents, because most of the scout events are family activities.

Help!  I've fallen and I can't get up!

Over the weekend, we had the first activity, which was "Raingutter Regatta" - you basically build a wooden ship and race them down two gutter channels full of water.  The ships are air-powered (you have to blow on the sails).  I'm going to be honest and say our boat sucked.  We just decorated the boat out of the box and thought we were set.  Did I mention that people take family activities seriously here?  People showed up with catamarans, they whittled the hull to be more aerodynamic, and they had all these different sail configurations.  Really dad? little Timmy sawed the hull in half, shaved the hull and sprayed it with marine varnish?  Really?!?

Yes - that is the sound of a slacker parent and a sore loser.

So those of you who have been scouts know what's coming up...

Their big annual boy scout fundraiser is to sell popcorn.  They do it every fall to fund all the activities for the year.  G's already had shifts at the local supermarkets and has gone door to door.  Both were really good experiences for him - especially for a kid who tends to be on the shy side.  But I figure since I have a blog, I might as well try and make some money for the pack.  So here is why you should buy the WAAAY overpriced Boy Scout Popcorn thru G:

* 70% of the proceeds go to the Boy Scouts, and according to the manufacturer, it's partially tax-deductible.  If you order online, they will ship to you.

* You will get a hand-written letter of thanks from G.  Mrs Fly is from the South and believes in thank you notes - sadly, it's kind of a dying gesture nowadays.  Despite our best efforts, his handwriting is so crappy it'll be good for a laugh.  From my end, I also want to expose him to the world of online businesses.

* And I decided to throw in a little kicker for all you poker players.  I'm coming out of retirement on the database analysis.  I'm going to have a raffle (weighted by dollar volume) and pick one lucky person who will get all of my database reads and leaks on them.  If we get a lot of sales, maybe I'll do more than one.  The only guy I ever did this for really found my comments helpful and it helped him go from being a slightly losing player to a reasonable winning player.  Poker is a lot more fun when you win (more).  Now some of you regs may be saying, "Yeah, but you suck."  Perhaps - but I have made money THIRTY SIX MONTHS IN A ROW.  I must know "something," right?!?  And even if I sucked, if you have something glaring that a suck-ass such as myself can spot, wouldn't you want to know about it?  And if you are one of the few regs who regularly get pwned by me (yes - such people exist), this could save you thousands of dollars a year (at least), because you are probably getting hosed by other regs too.

* And you get some pretty good popcorn.  We got the kettle corn and it tasted much better than the Orville Redenbacher we usually get from Costco.
 
Send me an email to doubleflypoker@gmail.com and I'll send you a link to the online catalog.  Popcorn never looked so good.   Um...  maybe not...

[topless photo of popcorn lady got censored]

I didn't really want any nudity on the blog, but after that hairy armpit photo, I figured I owed you guys one.  Also, the number 1 rule of sales is... sex sells, baby!

I was arguing with a guy about how much I thought FT funds were (he was being rude to other regs who thought FT funds was near "worthless" and his estimate of 50+ cents on the dollar was absurd), and it seemed like an interesting thing to re-post:

If FT funds worth anywhere near 50 cents, people would be snapping them up at the current market price of 15 cents (including me). The market is made up of buyers and sellers. Sellers want to sell because they think it's worth less and buyers want to buy because it's worth more. Obviously the number of people who want to sell have overwhelmed the number of people who want to buy. And it hasn't been a sudden panic... this has gone on for MONTHS. The slow and mounting volume of people wanting to sell have overwhelmed the few people wanting to buy and have driven the price down. I have no idea where you are getting that there are tons of smart people buying. "Tons of smart people buying" would mean the price would have stablilize or to go up at some point. I haven't seen that happen.

Also, I don't think the corporate standards for asset accounting holds for this company, as evidenced by past management actions. The longer this goes on, the less money they have. The industry is also (effectively) unregulated, so I suspect the standard bankruptcy/liquidation procedures may not take place. "Class action lawsuit" sounds much better than it is.

As previously mentioned, I see no way ANY investor is going to want to invest in the current company. Why should they pony up $200 mil in lost player accounts, AND take on all the legal woes? This makes sense to you? There might be some other work-arounds, but the "pay off player debts" is not in most of those scenarios.

You have become blinded by what you think the valuation is. You have to ask yourself, "why is this the case?" the fact of the matter is, there are plenty of people who know more about this situation than we do, and we haven't seen any that buying. Really? You think Ivey, Galfond, or any of the other odds-saavy people in the forum somehow magically got together to say they are boycotting this awesome trade where they can buy for 15 cents when it's actually worth 50? Really?!? I just don't understand how you can keep arguing this.

I even gave you a benchmark - Cake is OPEN FOR BUSINESS and the last week, I've seen it trade as low as 45 cents for a 5-figure size. All those sellers crazy too? And all the buyers not showing up for the same reasons?

I'm hoping you (and Whale) are smarter than everyone else and it really is worth 50+cents, since I have money on FT too. But I doubt it, because all evidence is to the contrary.

Analogy: a few years ago, there was an prestigious bank called Lehman Brothers. It traded as high as $86. We had the credit crisis and it started plummeting. TONS of people thought as you did, that all the sellers were retarded and panicky, and gave reasons x, y, and z for why there were no buyers. That at $30 it was an awesome buy, and at $20 and at $10 and even at $3. That it still had assets, too big to fail, yada yada yada. You know what? It is now a penny stock. All those "tards" selling at $10 are pretty friggin happy they sold there. A lot of the "lifers" got wiped out - you know, people who grew so attached to the money on their site and thought the thing *had to* go back up because it was "worth" more, all evidence to the contrary. Sound familiar?

So unless you somehow think you are smarter than everyone else, know more about the situation than everyone else (and there are tons of people out there with insider information, which we do not have) - both of which are highly unlikely - you're doing what we in finance call WAGing (wild-assed guessing). I just don't see how you can ignore the evidence when YOU are about as clueless as everyone else. Sorry if I've troubled you with the facts.

Do I think 15 cents is low? Possibly - Maybe it's worth 20-25 cents. But if given the choice of buying Cake at 55 cents or FT at 25 cents, I'm going to take Cake (and I have). What would you do?

Just to get Whale off of suicide watch, the only think I'll say for FT is that it's possible it can turn on ONE piece of news. But that event is unlikely.