Thursday, September 8, 2011


Possibly more bad poker news.  According to Subject: Poker:

According to our sources, the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Maryland plans to seize the assets of payment processors who facilitated transactions between the Merge Network and its US customers. It is unclear exactly which payment processors are reportedly being targeted, whether indictments are planned in addition to seizures, or whether the DOJ intends to seize domain names as well.

Here's what I wrote in the Reg's thread:

Just to give a balanced view so people don't freak out more than necessary, the article talks mainly about processors (which wouldn't be as big a deal). It then SPECULATES that a bigger action may be POSSIBLE. And the "bigger" action may just be against one or two skins. My guess would be Sportsbook (which had been accepting new US cutomers). There's an off-chance it may be Lock since it seems suspicious their normally stellar cashouts have ground to a halt recently. The absolute worst thing would be if the whole network gets taken down, but even in that case, there's a chance we'll see our money eventually.

The more I thought about it though, it really didn't sound like the whole network was being taken down.  I think if it was a huge operation, the source is more likely to have said "plans to seize the Merge network" - not the "payment processors of..."  It's kind of like a conditional probability exercise.  Given the informant specified "payment processors," it seems much more likely the scope is going to be smaller than bigger. 

Solid logic?  Or wishful thinking? Who the hell knows?  But if you had been careful about your bankroll, like I had been urging for a while now, you have much less to worry about.  It's ironic that JUST YESTERDAY I was was having an argument with a few other regs about what an appropriate amount of money to keep online is.  My rule of thumb for a full-time reg was a 2 to 1 bankroll (including cashouts) to monthly income ratio.  Maybe as high as 4 to 1 if you are a part-timer.  Mine is less than 1.5 to 1 (mostly from having three cashouts pending), fwiw.  Anyway, don't keep repeating the same mistakes from FT over and over again.

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