My win rate of 1.24ptbb is pretty disappointing. Fortunately, I did better in the higher stakes. It seems like soooo long ago when I was practicing 1/2 - I can't believe I played 36K hands at small stakes last month. My 6 max win rate was 2.3ptbb, which is pretty good considering I was breakeven the first week or two. All-in-all, not a great month but I think I'm making solid progress. POKER
Since I was so close to having a losing month, I thought I would talk about the odds of having a down month for a poker grinder. The tables on the left summarize the probability of having a down month for various win rates and standard deviations (both in ptbb). The table on the top is over 125K hands a month and the table on the bottom is over 50K hands a month. Note that these probabilities are not the same as the odds of going through a 125K or 50K break-even stretch.
For example, if you are a 2.0ptbb winner at full ring with a 32ptbb std dev, then you will be down 8.1% of months - roughly one month in 12. Also, if you were a 3.0ptbb winner and you just had two down months playing 50K hands each, then you may need to revisit your assumption that you are a 3ptbb winner. I suppose it's almost a chicken & egg situation.
Obviously, this is all theoretical, and has the usual caveats of statistical analysis. Win rates are dynamic, as the games play differently every month. We're also assuming that as a 2/4 player, you're not taking shots at 5/10 or even worse, 25/50+. And if you tilt like I just got on the other end of your see saw, then this analysis is not for you. As I alluded to in one my early posts, the notion that poker income is completely unstable is false, if you have a good enough win rate and put in enough hands. Thank you, Law of Large Numbers.
For example, if you are a 2.0ptbb winner at full ring with a 32ptbb std dev, then you will be down 8.1% of months - roughly one month in 12. Also, if you were a 3.0ptbb winner and you just had two down months playing 50K hands each, then you may need to revisit your assumption that you are a 3ptbb winner. I suppose it's almost a chicken & egg situation.
Obviously, this is all theoretical, and has the usual caveats of statistical analysis. Win rates are dynamic, as the games play differently every month. We're also assuming that as a 2/4 player, you're not taking shots at 5/10 or even worse, 25/50+. And if you tilt like I just got on the other end of your see saw, then this analysis is not for you. As I alluded to in one my early posts, the notion that poker income is completely unstable is false, if you have a good enough win rate and put in enough hands. Thank you, Law of Large Numbers.
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