Wednesday, April 7, 2010

So yesterday I had one of those sessions I like to call RBP (raped by fish).  Pretty much the fish had their way me...  hitting their sets (even tho they play like 40% of their hands, most of which aren't pairs), hitting their gutshots, hitting rivers - pretty much every way you can get hosed by a bad player, I got hosed.  To be honest, in my attempt to be "more aggressive," I also spewed off a few buy-ins.  I don't mind that.  So the net result was what over 7K hands, I lost 3K.  My showdown winnings were barely positive, which is bad for a nut-peddler like myself.  On the bright side, I did realize I was doing something poorly regarding bet sizing against bad players (later post).

But these things happen.  Even when you get your money in good, you may only be a 2 to 1 favorite or so.  There are tons of decisions you need to make where your decision may come down to just a few percent edge.  So over the course of dozens of these flips and decisions per session, there will be days when luck does not smile on you.  Dealing with it is all a part of playing poker.  All you can do is continue to make good decisions, and over the LOOOONG RUN, things will even out.

If you think about it, some of the most popular games in casinos are games with less than a few percent edge vs non-simian players (blackjack, craps, baccarat, single 0 roulette, high takes slots, etc).  I think the casinos do all right for themselves by letting the odds and the law of large numbers work for them.  Sure, some nights, people are going to walk away winners.  But over the long run, tons and tons of a few percent edge *might* add to up to something tangible...

There are tons of situations in poker where the difference between a optimal and suboptimal decision is just a few percent.  Identifying all these situations as they happen is all part of becoming a better player.  And most importantly, no matter how bad things get, make sure you can continue to think clearly and not tilt to erode the edges you've created for yourself.

I played a short session today and made most of it back.  Luck it evens out... eventually.
I had a request for more "poker" posts.  I may not have any for another week or two - I've been in a haze for the last week or so.  But I haven't forgotten.  I have a few stats/HEM analysis pieces in mind.

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