Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Since there was some demand, here is the second installment of my stats analysis series...

Today, I'll talk about the "HoleCard" report in HEM.  It's actually fairly instructive to see what your win rate is by hand.  Sometimes, there may be certain types of hands you don't play well.  So here are "Mark's" win rates by hand (I left out suited connectors, aces, and gappers because I don't have any useful benchmarks).  I think the following are "reasonable" win rates for premiums in the small to midstakes games (for a decent winner).

AA 9.5 bb/hand
AK 2.0 bb
AQ 1.0 bb
KK 6.0 bb
QQ 3.5 bb
JJ 2.0 bb
TT 1.0 bb

There are two things that stand out on Mark's breakdown.  The first is that his win rate on premiums is lower than what I think is typical for a "moderate winner."  I think a big part of that is his low 3bet strategy (which I discussed last time) - it makes it more difficult to get paid on on monsters.

The thing that really stood out is his win rate on low pairs.  The full ring games are known for absurd levels of set mining.  As you can see, Mark is leaking from the low pairs.  Set mining is definitely a useful weapon, but you really need to be judicious as to when to use it.  The fact of the matter is, in a heads-up pot, you need 2 bets out of your opponent JUST TO BREAK EVEN (assuming you can't take the pot away some other way).  There are a whole bunch of people you are rarely getting three streets of value from (let alone stacking) - even if they have TPTK.  Obviously this also depends on your own image.  Even in multiway pots, there might be times where people will fold TP to a second bet.  You need to recognize what situations you are likely to get paid off.  Don't be a set mining monkey.

Let me know if you want me to do more of these.  BTW, if 5 people post their premium or pocket pair win rates for the year in the comments, I'll post mine.  ;-)

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