Thursday, November 11, 2010

You may be wondering how the stats analysis for the fellow 2+2er is going.  I'm going to have to give him a name, so I'll call him "Mark."  I'm a big believer in the old saying "a picture is worth a thousand words."  He sent me 184K hands, but clearly, his first 40K hands and the last 140K hands paint a different picture.  Not sure if he started playing differently, or it took that many hands for the regs to adjust, or it might just be variance.  Anyway, I decided to just look at his last 140K hands, as that seems to paint a consistent picture, and is the source of his problems.

The very first thing to do is to look at your stats by position.  Looking at aggregated stats tells me very little.  The first thing that stands out is that he is leaking severely from the blinds.  If you just folded all of your blinds, you can't do any worse than -50 and -100 respectively, and he's not too far off from those numbers (at -36 and -60 respectively).  BTW, I prefer at looking at EV numbers.  Just changing his blind win rate to a more respectable -30 and -45 will get him to being a slight winner in ev terms.

Looking for clues to his blind woes, it's clear his 3bet numbers look very peculiar.  It's highly unusual to see someone whose 3 bet is 2% or less from the blinds.  There are ways to make this work, but in looking thru his 3bet hands, it was clear 2/3 of his 3bets were with KK+, AK.  Considering his overall 3bet is fairly low, it is highly unlikely that he is going to receive much action when he 3bets from the blinds.  So he's not getting as much value with his premiums as he could.  More importantly, he could probably get a ton of value by just 3 bet-bluffing a little more.  Most players now open around 30-50+% from all three steal positions.  Surely, there is a ton of free money to be had with a 3bet bluff.

Anyway, that's just Step 1 of some of the basic things you should be looking at when going thru your database.  If there's enough demand, I could write more, but I'm not sure if enough people will find this interesting, since many SSNL and almost all MSNL players will be aware of this process.  As it is, I'm going to have to wake Mrs. Fly after she reads this post.

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