You've probably guessed this was coming... but I'm going to have to take a mulligan on the weight this month and half of next month until I get back from vacation. Imagine that!  Fatty's been eating gourmet meals all month and hasn't done anything about his weight!  I could explain, but it's just going to sound like "bleah bleah bleah excuse, bleah bleah excuse, bleah excuse."  So I'll just save myself the embarrassment.

It's like when you're standing on the championship tees (when in fact you should be driving from the ladies' tees) and you just hook a golf shot so badly that it not only goes over the out-of-bounds fence, it goes past the two lane road besides it, past 100 feet of someone's front yard and and hits the head of the dog sleeping on the porch.  The dog is startled, looks at the golf ball in front of him and says "WTF?!?"  It's just best not to say anything, just let your friends laugh at you, pick up another ball and move on. 

I still want to get to 225 by the end of the year.  That' still only a pound a week, and fairly doable.  Shoot.  I can lose 5lbs after a decent bowel movement.  I'm hoping my ankle feels a little better in a few weeks so I can start working out.

BTW, apologies to those who have left comments on my blog the past week or so.  I changed some settings on my blog and I didn't realize I had comments.

JOKE

Chris Rock is one of my favorite stand-up comedians:

People are starving all over the world, what do you mean, "Red meat will kill you"? Don't eat no red meat? No, don't eat no green meat! If you're one of the chosen few people in the world lucky enough to get your hands on a steak, bite the s**t out of it!

My kind of guy!

So the other day I was saying how I had 3 days to make 7K to avoid my worst month in a year.  My graph of day 1.  I'm pretty sure this is my best day ever: $7.8K (75% 2/4 and 25% 3/6).  I wish I could say it was all skillful play, but when you start talking about making almost 90 cents a hand at 2/4 to 3/6, there was plenty of luck involved.  Disaster averted!  Well, I suppose I still have 1.5 days to mess things up.  Maybe Mrs. Fly needs to make me an indecent proposal to get me off the computer the next two days, for my own protection.

Assuming I don't go into another relapse, this will bring my break-even stretch to 112K hands, which happens.  Also, I played for some time at 1/2 working on some things and started playing a new game (6max), so this probably lasted longer than it may have otherwise.  The most important thing is I feel good about my play (altho I'm still a work in progress) and my prospects going forward.

WHAT'S FOR DINNER?

Not sure if this is a diss of my "poker" blog, but someone made a request for more food.  So I dedicate this meal to JasonS from 2+2 - corny beef...  Um... I mean corned beef.  Okay - that was corny.

One of the things I miss about living in Manhattan is getting good cured meats.  We used to live within walking distance of the Second Ave Deli and Sarge's, and the Carnegie Deli and Katz's was just a short commute away.  Nothing beats a good 1+lb pastrami and corned beef sandwich on rye.  Unfortunately, in the food variety wasteland known as Southern Connecticut, this is the only way I can get my fix.  It's nowhere near as good as any of the aforementioned NYC delis, but it's better than going to the cold cut section of your supermarket.  I have no idea what that crap is they are trying to pass off as pastrami and corned beef in the meat counter.

It's from a package in the supermarket, so anyone can make the corned beef at home.  Mrs. Fly sauteed the cabbage with bacon.  Imagine that!  Because otherwise, let's face it...  cabbage tastes like... well... cabbage.  Mrs. Fly says pork and cabbage is a classic combination.  Okay - if you say so.  Personally, I try and avoid the latter whenever possible.  The thing on the top is a refreshing diced vegetable salad Mrs. Fly ripped off from one of her friends.  She edited 2 cookbooks, so she's good at finagling recipes from people.

Our next installment of viewer mail:

Q: How soon before poker bots get sophisticated enough to spoil the games?

A: The last I heard, they had a LIMIT hold em program that could beat humans: http://www.stoxpoker.com/man_vs_machine.html. I'm pretty sure I could come up with a winning SHORT STACK algorithm for no limit holdem - which means it's probably out there. STTs and MTTs are somewhat extensions of the short stacking game. There is analysis software out there now for STTs and MTTs that give you ev analysis for every hand played. I don't see why something similar couldn't be incorporated into a playing bot. Limit holdem, short stacking and tournaments are particularly attractive to bots because the downside to making a wrong play is limited.

NO LIMIT holdem cash games are a little more challenging because of the larger initial stack sizes. Even still, I think we're pretty close (if not there already) to having a machine play winning no limit hold em.  I don't worry about it for a few reasons:
* The poker sites are allegedly vigilant about looking for cheaters, and it should be in their best long term interests to do so.
* I don't think a bot would crush the games. Even if it was technologically possible, I think they would prefer to stay under the radar.  So I don't know that having a bot at the table would be that much worse than having a decent winning reg at the table.
* I actually think it's possible to beat a bot playing "against" your stats (i.e. playing differently from what your stats would indicate).  But I haven't completely thought this out.

FWIW, I have a buddy who used to be part of a chess club in Manhattan.  Last year, I met a few of his chess club buddies a few times and they seemed to be preoccupied with programming online poker bots.  There's no money in chess - plenty of money in poker.  They seemed to be cognizant of possibly doing the data processing and actual playing from separate machines, so that detection may be more difficult.  I would also be surprised if in every advanced computer science class in the country, there wasn't someone (if not the whole class) working on poker algorithms or bots for a project.  For this and many other reasons, the game gets harder every year.

Q:  Will the NLHE games die out from over-analysis before this ever happens?

A:  I DON'T think the NLHE games will die out for a two reasons:

* There will always be fish (assuming no adverse regulation).  How do I know?  The same reason casinos are constantly popping up and state lotteries are booming.  People love to gamble.  It's just part of human nature - it's exciting and fun (when you win).  If there are hordes of people who like throwing $100 in a slot machine when their ev is -8%, or people who pay $10 for lottery tickets when their ev is -50%, I don't see how playing a virtually zero sum game against other human competitors won't be more appealing.

* Poker is a zero sum game with costs.  The "game dying out" scenario requires that everyone starts becoming equally skilled, so the only one making money is the casino.  However, I have no reason to think this would be true.  While it may be that it would take a greater amount of skill to make the same money five years from now, it's not clear to me that the top players 5 years from now won't be making more money than the top players are now.  It's like how in sports people get better every year, but the top players still clearly make more than the rest of the pack.  I suppose it is possible that everyone's play will approach what is considered game-theory optimal, it's not clear to me that game theory optimal can't be beaten by creative players - again, I need to think about it some more.

I'd be interested to hear what other players think.

We're having some people over for a BBQ today and since Mrs. Fly has to do all the work, I got up early to watch the kids while she slept in.  Not sure if it's because I didn't get enough sleep, but I'm drawing a blank on what to write about today.  So if you have any suggestions or questions, send me an email or PM on 2+2.

[Later that day]

Ugh.  I had too much to drink at our BBQ and am out of commission for tonight.  Since I won't be playing tonight, that means I can present the weekly update.  Nothing really to say other than some weeks, the poker ev gods smile on you and other weeks, they don't.  I now have 3 days to make 7K to avoid my worst month in a year.  I'll be grinding like a madman the next three days!

One of the mid stakes regs is in China and said they couldn't read my blog from there.  So I jokingly said that it's probably because I posted nude photos of Mrs. Fly.  The hits to my blog increased 55% today, and it's only 8PM.  I'll project it'll hit 75% by the end of the day.  Sex sells, baby!

WHAT'S FOR DINNER?

It sure pays to know chefs.  We went over to a new friends' house yesterday and the food was outstanding.  Mrs. Fly is really good with pasta, but she's never made fresh pasta.  I knew we were in for a treat when the whole time we were having appetizers and wine, the hostess was rolling out the pappardelle (flat wide soft pasta).  She served it with a veal and pork bolognese sauce that was amazing.  I then finished that off with TWO of these brined pork chops with a balsamic reduction and grilled vegetables.  And she baked a dark chocolate cake and a key-lime pie for dessert.  We're supposed to have them over for dinner in May.  If I know Mrs. Fly, she's going to try and out-do this meal.  Now that's what I call win-win!

Not sure if you noticed, but I added another blog to my blogroll yesterday.  NxtWrldChamp ("Makin' Moves") is a solid 6max regular who I remember from 19 months ago when I played some 6max.  He recently got married. 

I realized I never gave an intro to the other regulars who have blogs listed in my blog roll.  I had mentioned John K in a previous post.

* TheMightyJim ("Escaping the Cubicle") is one of the better midstakes (2/4 - 5/10) regulars, and the only other regular poster from the 2+2 mid stakes full ring forum.  He used to be a basball player and is dating a doctor.  Ka-ching!  ;-)

* "LacieK" ("WelcometotheRPC") is also a pretty good midstakes regular who recently made the transition from small stakes (0.5/1 - 1/2).  He's also the resident haute couture model expert.  I still have no idea how a non-gay male can know so much about fashion models - he knows more than Mrs. Fly!  Photo from Lacie's Blog.

The other guys are primarily from the small stakes full ring forum:

* "Skelm" ("Rolled on the River") is who I call the Godfather of small stakes.  He's the only guy I know who has an assistant.  And whenever he requests something get done in the forums, it gets done.  He used to be "part of" one of the poker coaching "businesses."  Coincidentally (?) one which recently got a lot of flack for cheating and unprofessional coaching practices.  O Really, "Godfather"?  He also got "selected" by one of the better high stakes player to be his sole mentee for the year.  O Really?  I still have no idea what his poker identity is. O Really?  And he's writing a book.  I recently had to turn down a request from him - I hope I don't find anything unpleasant shipped to my house...

* Newmanmi ("Evolution of Newman") is one of the better small stakes players.  All I know about him is that he's a giant man with a tiny dog.  Go figure.  Photo of Newman's cavalier king charles spaniel.

* Damn Ringer ("Damn Ringer's Poker Blog") is a good small stakes player.  A poker professional - pretty much does everything - plays, coaches, and writes.

* Vizer02 ("Bluffing My Way to the Top") is also a good small stakes player.  Definitely a "younger man's blog."  My favorite blog entry intro: "Never Have I Ever...Been fucking a girl while she pukes on the bed. At least not before last night that is."  That's gotta rank up there with "Call me Ishmael." and "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..." as one of the top opening lines in Western literature.

So that's a cross-section of some of the "riff-raff" I associate with on a daily basis.  All joking aside, "most" of the regs seem like reasonably solid individuals.  There's usually no shortage of interesting and funny exchanges in the poker forums - altho we seem to be in a bit of a dry spell now.

Poker's been super frustrating lately. I'm 8bis below ev the last three days, but I'm up over 4K.  I guess that's a good sign. I'm also getting back into my normal "grinding" hours, so playing time has not been an issue.  I'm starting to develop a better feel for 6max, and I think I should continue to see progress. I want to say half the players seem fairly solid, but there are some unbelievably spewy regulars. I had attempted to play slightly LAGgy at first, but that was a mistake. There are actually a handful of regs who 3bet over 15%. So basically their 3betting range almost equals my entire open raising range. O really?

I wasn't intentionally trying to play LAGgy - I think it was a carry over from when I was practicing that style at 1/2 Rush.  If I had put any thought into it, I should have played tighter.  Play tighter vs loose players and looser vs tight players.  I'm my attempts to play a little looser at 6max, I had been borderline reckless.  I think I've managed to contain most of my spew, so I'm pretty optimistic about my prospects. I'm so encouraged that I may start adding in 3/6 6max tables in the next few weeks.

The main thing I still have to get used to is the volatility.  According to my HEM, my standard deviation in 6 max is only 20% higher than full ring.  I find this very hard to believe because it feels like I'm playing large pots a lot more frequently.  In full ring, people play a very tight range of hands so usually after a round or two of betting, the hand is over.  In 6max, because hand ranges are so wide, it takes 3 rounds of betting to get some off of 2nd pair - and sometimes that's not enough.  People get stickier to their hands (as they should), so this leads to more interesting situations.  Playing 6max has definitely helped my full ring game (altho it hasn't shown up in results yet), and made me realize some leaks I had before.

WHAT'S (coming up) FOR DINNER?

"We" made friends with a nice couple from a holiday party (okay, Mrs. Fly did all the work - I'm just a freeloader), and they invited us over to their house for dinner tomorrow.  The wife was a chef at Mario Batali's Babbo restaurant, so this should be awesome.  Coincidentally(?) we know a few chefs.  Imagine that!  Fatty makes friends with chefs!  We have friends in Philly (gotta give a shout out to Andrew Song and Patty from the forums, as they always appear when Philly is mentioned) where the wife used to be a seafood sous chef at Le Bec Fin.  I've never been there, but I hear it's one of the top restaruants in the country.  Oddly, in the 5+ years we've known them, she's never made us any seafood - only this eclectic chili.  I wonder if those years of preparing seafood in a high pressure environment turned her off.  We also know a couple where the husband was a chef at Patroon (a business eatery in Manhattan).  He made us these unbelievable braised short ribs once.  Unfortunately, the portion was like 6ozs.  It was like making love to a stunning woman, and being told to stop after 3 minutes.  Hey buddy!  Save the fancy plating and look at your customers (see whale watch)!  JK - they're one of the funniest couples we know.  We should be paying both couples a visit in the next few months.

One of the best things about playing poker full time is that I get to be there for all events related to the family.  I've been around D pretty much 24/7 his whole life.  One of the things I enjoy doing is going with D and Mrs. Fly to the pediatrican visits.  It's kind of like getting your exam results back when you're pretty sure you did well.  I hear it's possible to have the pediatrician call social services if he/she suspects you're a fuck-up at parenting.  Actually, this reminds me of the time I thought I aced a test and I ended up barely passing.  I can't remember what the details were.  Imagine that!  Senile Man can't remember something.

D is in the 75th percentile for height (takes after dad) and 25th percentile for weight (takes after mom).  I pride myself as knowing how to get fat (see whale watching sidebar), so it's a little irritating to me that he's so thin.  It's one thing to be in the 25th percentile for height - then being in the 25th percentile for weight is normal.  But because he's tall, he looks even thinner than a normal 25th percentile weight baby.  Something about a skinny baby just doesn't look right.  He eats well, so I'm hoping its just a phase he's going through.  Anyway, all his stats are in the "normal" range so it's not a big deal.  But all things being equal, I believe that it's better for kids to be a little heavier than lighter - they have so much growing ahead of them that it's better for them to be slightly over nourished than under.  Imagine that!  Mr. Fatty thinks it's okay for kids to be overweight than underweight.

HANDS

I consider myself one of the more controlled players in the game.  But once in a while, I'll make a play that's just unbelievably mindboggling.  I got a good laugh out of this.  Villain is a reg and I think we've played enough for him to know that I'll occasionally take a tricky/passive line with a good hand.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($574.35)
UTG+1 ($633)
MP1 ($750.85)
Hero (MP2) ($600)
MP3 ($204)
CO ($615)
Button ($600)
SB ($570)
BB ($600)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10♦, 10♣
3 folds, Hero bets $21, 2 folds, Button calls $21, 2 folds

Flop: ($51) 6♥, 9♥, K♥ (2 players)

[Villain's been a little sticky to pots vs me, so I'm thinking if I bet, he's going to float me and try and take it away on a later street.  So then I hatch this brillaint plan where he'll have to put in a lot of money and fold to me on the river...  Mu ha ha ha...]

Hero checks, Button bets $26, Hero calls $26

Turn: ($103) 8♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $64, Hero calls $64

River: ($231) 3♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $154, Hero raises to $489 (All-In), Button calls $335 (All-In)

Total pot: $1209 $3
Rake:

Main pot: $1209 between Hero and Button, won by Button

Results:
Button had 2♥, 5♥ (flush, King high).
Hero had 10♦, 10♣ (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Button won $1206

Um...  except he flopped the flush.  Doh!  I've been trying some different things lately, but I may have to bury that one.  Altho he did fold a lot more afterwards.  Hmm...  I only need 30-40 of those tiny pots to make up for this ONE tho...

Every so often, the topic of best playing style comes up.  In this way, poker's no different from chess, golf, or any other competitive endeavor.  The poker forums generally favor a LAG (loose aggressive) style of play.  So I decided to look through my data to see if there was any validity to the LAGs' claim that their style is superior.

The data I analyzed comprises of 978K hands over the past 12 months where I've played with 8 or more people, for the 298 players who I have played 10+K hands with. The 10+K min hand requirement should get rid of all non-regulars.  Not getting rid of the casual players will bias the data towards TAGs (tight aggerssives), as most fish play way too many hands.  As you can see, there is "some" difference in win rates, but that difference is not statistically signifcant.  In addition, there are three factors that would make the LAG data look better than it actually is:

* There is a significant population of mid to high stakes regs who don't play 12+ tables.  As you move up, people play fewer tables, play more hands per table and focus on more on extracting max value from each hand.

* My data still includes short stackers, who either have TAG or sub-TAG stats.  It is well known that short stacking produces a very small win rate.

* Over 50% of the hands in my sample are from 8 handed play.  You may be saying that 8 handed is basically the same as 9 handed.  But the GTO (game theory optimal) stats for 8 handed will be 12% higher than 9 handed.  While everyone looks at stats that are averaged over all the different sized tables they play, if you look at "pure" 9-handed full-ring stats, they look like this:

There are only 148 players that have 10+K hands on a 9 handed table.  But here are some tables that clearly show that looser is not better.  However, I think this subset of data is too fine, as most people play anywhere from 7 to 9 handed and still consider the game "full ring."  Also, some players with LAG stats aren't really LAGs at a 9 handed table because their stats include a whole bunch of HU and short handed play at full ring tables.

This data is obviously nowhere near conclusive, but considering how many "LAG is best" comments there are in the forums, I see no data that would justify this.  That having been said, when I think of the top three mass multitabling regs at midstakes, they all play around 18/13 (which I consider the lower end of LAG) - maybe people just remember how the best play.  But as I've said in the past, good players are LAG because they are good - so they can play more hands profitably.  Players don't get good because they play more hands.

Imo, proprietary trading is the best job in an investment bank.  When you are a market-making trader, you are at the beck and call of your customers.  But as a proprietary trader, as long as you make money, you pretty much can set your own hours, get a whole bunch of perks (like salespeople taking you out, etc), and get paid a reasonable amount of money.  Proprietary trading is usually a zero sum game, where for you to make money, someone has to lose the money to you (either absolutely or vs a benchmark like the S&P).  But because of transactions costs, there are more losers than winners.  Proprietary traders provide no tangible benefit to the economy - they just fight for a larger share of financial pie.  Rates of return is how you keep score.  There are tons of different way people can try and get an edge over their competitors and make money - people trade by feel, analysis, tons of small bets, a few large bets, etc.  Generally, the successful traders have an excellent grasp or risk/reward and money management.  They can process large amounts of information in a short amount of time and consistently make good decisions in a high-pressure environment.

Gee... proprietary trading sounds an awful lot like another profession we know.  Traders are near the top of the job food chain.  I live in a fairly wealthy area, dominated by financial giants, and people have been known to say things like "he's only a doctor."  Pretty messed up.  On the job totem pole, poker players are probably one step above burger flippers at McDonald's (and depending on where you live, poker may be way below that) in terms of respectability.  I find that odd because functionally, the two jobs are very similar.

I used to work with a big hitter who had the belief that a good poker player would make an excellent trader because all the prerequisites to being a good poker player are needed to be a good trader.  I shared that view and would always look for people who showed an aptitude for assessing competitive dynamics and making quick solid decisions.  I don't think there are two jobs that share so many skill sets that are as far apart on the job respectability scale.  Well, maybe models and strippers.  Or entertainers and porn stars.  On that note...

WHAT'S FOR DINNER

Smothered Pork...  Chops.  I'm not a big pork person.  Sausage > Bacon >>> Ham > Pork.  But this was easily the best pork dish I've ever had (other than Morimoto's 10 hour braised pork belly).  The sauce was really good - like a creamy pork gravy.  Mrs. Fly is known for her flavored rice.  People always cook rice in water, but it tastes so much better if you add a little stock and seasoning to it.

My head is about to explode from running bad.  In my last session, I lost 11 stacks (KK < AA, went 0-3 in flips, lost a hand where I was a 86% favorite, and ALL the rest were coolers or semi-coolers).  I'm obviously going to need to call in some cleaning people to wipe off all that holy water that was sprinkled in my office. Catholicism just lost it's chance to get a convert.

Well, at least I didn't lose much money this week.  I have 9 days to make around 10K to avoid having my worst month in a year (and that was a month where I took 2 weeks off).  I think I'm up to the task - I just need this doomswitch to end.  Only 21 days until we head off to Florida!

In mid stakes news, Turtlelicious gave up on that $40K at 1/2 prop bet.  I think he was up like 9K after 11 days.  I'm shocked he gave up with like 20 days to go.  But when you're not used to playing a lot of hands and you start falling off the pace, it's hard to find that motivation to continue.  I might give it a go, but I don't know when I'd be able to do it - April is Orlando, May is our 10 year anniversary (and we're expecting out of town guests) and June is another family vacation.  July is pretty bad because we have a great outdoor entertaining space and we'll probably have a lot of people over.  August is probably another vacation.  September?

JOKE

In honor of midterms that many of you are in the middle of taking...

It was the final examination for an introductory Biology course at the local university. The examination was two hours long, and exam booklets were provided. The professor was very strict and told the class that any exam that was not on his desk in exactly two hours would not be accepted and the student would fail. Half of an hour into the exam, a student came rushing in and asked the professor for an exam booklet. "You're not going to have time to finish this," the professor stated sarcastically as he handed the student a booklet. "Yes I will," replied the student. He then took a seat and began writing. After two hours, the professor called for the exams, and the students filed up and handed them in. All except the late student, who continued writing.

An hour later, the last student came up to the professor who was sitting at his desk preparing for his next class. He attempted to put his exam on the stack of exam booklets already there."No you don't, I'm not going to accept that. It's late." The student looked incredulous and angry. "Do you know who I am?" "No, as a matter of fact I don't," replied the professor with an air of sarcasm in his voice. "Do you know who I am?" the student asked again in a louder voice. "No, and I don't care." replied the professor with an air of superiority. "Good," replied the student, who quickly lifted the stack of completed exams, stuffed his in the middle, and walked out of the room.

Yesterday was the most depressing day in recent memory for a mid stakes full ring player.  For most of the evening, there were only SIX 2/4 full ring tables ON A SATURDAY NIGHT!!!  I'm glad I've been transitioning to 6max.  I know March Madness is going on, but even during the World Series, there were plenty of tables.  There were also about half as many 6max tables as I was expecting.  I could have played, but decided to do some more studying instead.

I signed up for DeucesCracked again.  Just a 1 month membership tho, because I'm a cheap bastard.  I was going to watch Nolan's 3 betting videos, but I got sidetracked and watched some BelugaWhale instead.  Nothing to see here.  I think it's a good sign that I'm getting better when I watch someone else's video and think most of the plays are "standard."  I still pick up a little nugget here and there tho, and really enjoy listening to other good players' thought processes (later post).

On the development front, I think I need to spend a little more time thinking about playing more pots effectively in position vs out of position.  Even tho I'm a decent regular, there are definitely areas where I have glaring leaks.  I only have three weeks until my Orlando vacation, and I would like to use that time to iron out a few things.  And my P&L goal for the month would be to not have my worst month in the last year, which would be $12K (when I took 2 weeks off for a family vacation).

TIP

DoubleFly's Tax Tip: Email Full Tilt's support and ask them for a summary of your 2009 deposits and withdrawals (with account balances). They sent me six 25K line excel sheets with every table I sat at, every rebuy, cashout, etc. for all of 2009.  It's a lot more accurate than using your database (assuming accuracy is what you're looking for).  It'll probably take me a little time to summarize the data (it will probably involve string functions and pivot tables), but at least I know I have the data.  It took like 2 days for them to get back to me, so you may want to avoid the April 15th rush.

Someone in the forums had gone thru a few dates on eharmony and so the topic of dating a pro poker player came up. Of course this leads to me asking Mrs. Fly if she would have dated me had I been a poker player when we met. And she quickly says "absolutely not."

Bitch.  Oops. Sorry - a reflex from when I was younger.

Part of it was that she had no idea about the life of a poker player.  More important were the negative personality stereotypes associated with gambling.  But mostly it was because she had no idea what to tell her family. The latter seems completely retarded but she comes from that kind of family/background. That being said, she's been supportive of my decision not to go back to work and play pro poker instead.

What's ironic is that she and her family love me at least as much as before I made the career change. It all goes to show you... You can't judge a book by it cover.  One of the things I'd like to try and do with the blog is to dispel some of the stereotypes with respect to poker players. Having been both a trader and poker player, I can tell you that the two occupations are very similar - yet one is highly respected and the other is not (later post).  As with any subset of the population, you're going to have your bad apples and good eggs.  The bad eggs in poker get all the publicity (later post).

REVIEW

I thought I would start a new section where I review stuff - poker videos, books, blogs, etc. I should be in heavy study mode the next few months while I'm not playing, so if I come across anything interesting, I'll let you know.

I looked over a few other poker blogs, and John K's blog (in my blog links) seems to have some good poker content. For those of you who don't know him, he plays as Nicolak on FT. I remember playing with him two years ago when I played 6max, but he seems to have upped his game since then. His goal for 2010 is a cool mil. It looks like he just started it, but it's been a good read so far.

Next up...  I'll be signing up for DeucesCracked.  And my first stop is Nolan from 2+2. 

That family we had over for a home cooked dinner the other night invited us over to their country club for dinner.  While the power was out the past week, they were "slumming it" at their country club hotel - playing golf, swimming and eating gourmet meals.  La vida es dura.  I don’t think I’ve ever been to a country club for dinner.  But I have been for a few weddings and such.

The food was surprisingly good.  The salad tasted a little tired, but wtf! that's what I get for ordering a salad.  I had the dry aged NY strip and it was one of the best steaks I've had at a restaurant since we moved up here.  Mrs. Fly had some veal tenderloin that she was raving about most of the night.  G had a filet mignon from the kid's menu - lol - I don't think I've seen that before.  He's always been too young for us to take him to "nice" restaurants, so I don't know if that's standard.  And D had some duck fat fries (fries fried in duck fat).  He wasn't hungry so we all helped him finish it.  DoubleFly 1 - Food winner by TKO.

All this can be yours for a $100K initiation fee, $10K a year and $50pp for dinner (not including wine).  Umm...  Mrs. Fly just looks better and better to me every day.  Actually, the cost is not unreasonable, but I'm not really a "country club" kind of guy.  The $100K may seem kind of steep, but it's basically a decades long investment and all your kids get in for much less when they get older.  And $10K a year is just a tournament buy-in - how often do you ever cash in one of those anyway?  At least you get access to 2 great golf courses, tennis, pool, private beach and various other amenities.  Just one more thing to spend money on when hookers & blow isn't quite enough.

POKER

I haven't given up on MTTs - I will probably resume at the next FTOPs. But it occurs to me that I should try and play more single table tournaments ("STTs"), just to make sure I can do well as the fields narrow. It makes no sense to play an MTT when I'm not sure about my end game because the end game is the most important for determining your return. Unlike MTTs, the payouts in STTs are much more conducive to making consistent money. First thru third offer 50%, 30% and 20% respectively. So in doing a productivity analysis, I came up with the following:

At one cash table, I expect to make almost $15 an hour (2.5ptbb @ 70 hands/hour). So for me to get a similar return on MTTs, I need to enter a $100 buy-in and have an ROI of 60%, assuming I play 4 hours on average. Or, for a STT, I need to enter a $200 buy-in and have an ROI of 6%, assuming I play 50 minutes on average. I think the std deviation per 100 hands is probably higher for STTs than cash games. I get roughly 2x higher, but my stats is a little rusty. I think cash is still the best game when you look at potential return vs risk. But STTs should add a little excitement when the grind gets tiring.

I am quietly working on my worst month in a year.  I'm up just a few thousand 60% thru the month.  Thank god for rakeback.  I did enough grinding the past two days to get back into the top 15 of my rake race.  Like I always say... what I lack in quality, I make up for in quantity.  Or was that something Mrs. Fly said to me the other day?

I'm obviously just joking.  Obviously.

To be fair, I did spend some time working on some things and experimenting at Rush and I'm starting to play a new game (6max).  So I can't be completely disappointed.  I'll post my thoughts about 6max later in the month.  I only have 16K hands, so I don't have a good feel yet.  What I will say is that the play is right in between full ring (where more often than not you give people credit for having a hand) and heads-up (where more often than not you don't give people credit for having a hand).

POKER

There are two ways to make a lot of money in online poker. You can play tons of tables at mid stakes or play fewer tables at high stakes. I've obviously decided on the former.  The main reason is because I suck sufficiently enough that I don't belong in high stakes. But even if I was better, I'm not sure if I would want to play a ton at 20/40+. I feel comforted by the law of large numbers. Poker can be a volatile game. My win rate is 2.5ptbb, but my standard deviation is 30-45ptbb. Think about that for a sec. That means at a 2/4 table, I can expect to make $20 per 100 hands. And 66% of the time, I'll be within -$300 and +$340 per 100 hands (assuming a std dev of 40ptbb).  Compare the $20 gain vs the $320 swing.  It also means that 17% of the time, I'll have a loss greater than $300 over ONLY 100 hands.

This is an extreme example, but if I wanted to make $200, my options could be play 10 tables of 2/4, 1 table of 20/40 (assuming my win rate is the same, which it wouldn't be), or something in between.  Ten tables of 2/4 gets me an average of $200, and a std dev of $1,000.  One table of 20/40 gets me an average of $200, and a std dev of $3,200.  Four tables of 5/10 gets an average of $200, and a std dev of $1,600.  That's why my focus for the next year or two will be on the games 5/10 and under.

Another reason is because at high stakes, you have more opportunities for cheating.  Recently, some high profile players have been accused of creating multiple accounts and softplaying (and possibly worse) with their friends at the same table.  You can cheat at any game, but the effect that cheating will have on my bottom line when I play 100K hands at mid stakes is much less than when I only play 10K hands at high stakes.

Our area got ravaged by high speed winds over the weekend.  Trees had fallen all over the place - power still isn't back to all houses.  We knew four families who had to find other housing for a few days while the electricity was being worked on.  I think the town only recently cleared most of the fallen trees off the roads in our area.

School was cancelled for the past 3 days, and it looks like it'll be closed the rest of the week.  So rather than have a bunch of 6 year olds run amok, Mrs. Fly arranged for a series of play dates, and I was able to get in a some poker during the day.  Yesterday G asks me if we can go to McDonald's for breakfast.  Ah... he's a chip off the old block.  So what's a good dad to do even tho he's supposed to be losing weight?!?  Alas.  The "sacrifices" we make for our kids.  DoubleFly 1 - Food 7.

WHAT's FOR DINNER?

We have some friends who still have no electricity in their house. Mrs. Fly did the neighborly thing and invited them over to dinner for a home cooked meal. This is also the family we're going to Orlando with next month.

Eating take out around here is pretty disasterous. Chicken paprika was on the menu tonight. I don't think I've ever seen it on any restaurant menu, but Mrs. Fly got it from some cookbook and made her own adaptations. It's really outstanding and has a "home cooked" taste that really satisfies.

Today I had a hand so epic, I'm going to devote the whole post to this hand:

HANDS

I had a first - I participated in a 4 way All In Pre Flop hand with 3 other full stacks...  IN 6 MAX!!!  I don't think I ever was in one of these when I played full ring with 8 other people over 1.7 million hands, let alone with only 5 other players.  The only player who seemed fishy was BB (who played 44/1) and the other two seemed like decent regs.  So I have three questions for you after you review the set-up:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($765.90)
Hero (SB) ($402)
BB ($453.10)
UTG ($707.80)
MP ($388)
CO ($595.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K♣, K♦

UTG bets $14, 1 fold, CO calls $14, 1 fold, Hero raises to $60, BB calls $56, UTG calls $46, CO raises to $595.30 (All-In), Hero calls $342 (All-In), BB calls $393.10 (All-In), UTG calls $535.30

[Question 1:  What percent of the time am I actually good here?
My answer:  I literally could not see how anyone goes all-in with anything worse than JJ+ or AK, and because I have two blockers to AK, there's a really good chance one of the other players has AA.  Pokerstove says I'm 30% with those assumptions.  I'm getting 3 to 1 so...  whatever.]

Flop: ($2045.70) 3♣, Q♦, 3♠ (4 players, 3 all-in)

[Question 2: What percent of time am I good now that the Q hit the flop?
My answer:  Pokerstove says I'm now 15% to win, because AA is still ahead and so is QQ now.]

Turn: ($2045.70) 8♠ (4 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($2045.70) 5♣ (4 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: $2045.70 | Rake: $3

[Question 3: How many of the opponents actually had a hand that was {JJ+, AK}?
My answer:  Obviously I thought at least two.  It's plausible CO could have had worse (as he could have been resqueezing), as well as the 44/1.]

Results:
Hero had K♣, K♦ (two pair, Kings and threes).
BB had 7♦, 7♣ (two pair, sevens and threes).
UTG had 8♥, 6♥ (two pair, eights and threes).
CO had Q♣, A♣ (two pair, Queens and threes).

Outcome: Hero won $1605, CO won $437.70

Main pot: $1608 between Hero, BB, UTG and CO, won by Hero
Side pot 1: $153.30 between BB, UTG and CO, won by CO
Side pot 2: $284.40 between UTG and CO, won by CO

Quite the epic hand I would say.  Turns out I was only a 47% favorite to win the hand.  I would not have guessed that NO ONE else had {JJ+, AK}.  "Toto, I've a feeling we're not playing full ring anymore."

Ugh.  I just started collecting the paperwork for my taxes.  I do it every year myself using TurboTax because I like knowing what all the inputs are, and it helps me develop a better understanding of what drives the amount of taxes I pay.  I suppose in the "old days" when poker was played live, people probably didn't declare a lot of their income.  With many cash professions, whether you're a waiter, nail salon worker, cab driver, drug czar, or poker player, I would be shocked if more than a third of that income was declared.

But online poker is a new animal.  I withdraw from my poker account into my checking account (thru various means) several times a month.  Cash is not an option.  Currently, the IRS does not get any sort of documentation from the poker companies detailing my winnings.  This may change (as there is some pending legislation).  But in any event, I just save myself the headaches and declare all of my income for many reasons.  One, as a US citizen, that's what I'm supposed to do.  Two, if I ever get audited, I'm going to have to explain where all this money in my checking account is coming from.  Three, I can make my blog more entertaining and informative for you nice folks by talking about poker income.  Four, there are web sites that collect 90+% of hand histories so there are public estimates of player earnings.  Five, I'm not sure if any of the pending legislation will cause the poker companies to open up their books retroactively.  Six, I like not being in jail and spending time with my family instead.  Seven, my anus is a one way street and I do not want that violated by a cellmate.  I suppose at the end of the day, #7 is what it's all about.

Many countries do not require its citizens to pay taxes on poker winnings.  I hear countries like the UK, Italy, Sweden, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Denmark, Portugal, Ireland, etc. have more lax tax regulations, where you *may* pay nothing depending on the circumstances.  Obviously the laws vary from country to country, so before you pack up your family and emigrate to save some money on taxes, do a little research.  Don't say "Doublefly sent me and he was wrong!"

The second week of March concluded my current rehab stint.  Making only a few K in a week is never good, but it sure beats losing money.  The flat section in the first 18K hands was all 1/2 Rush, and the last 6K hands was playing 2/4+ (including 6max).  The standard deviation in 6max is probably about 1.5x what it is for full ring, so the graph should be getting choppier going forward.  It's funny how playing 24K hands in a week is considered part-time for me - some people don't play that many in a whole month.  I play around 900 hands/hr so I basically played 26 hours (although it seemed like it was a lot less than that).  I think most people would say that's not a "full" work week.

I have quietly been in the middle of a 70K hand break-even stretch, and within that stretch I had a 26 BI downswing.  I was 9 BIs under EV at the bottom.  100K hand breakeven stretches and 20+BI downswings probably happen a few times a year, so I was due.  Dealing with the times when things aren't going well is just part of being a pro (later post).  I'm not out of the woods yet, but since the bottom I made a nice recovery.  Starting next week, I'll be fully back to 2/4+ and ready to grind full time again (40+ hours).  I guarantee there will be some pwnage next week!  I'm just not sure if I'll be the pwner or the pwnee.

WHAT'S FOR LINNER?

We had the family over again and had a little birthday meal for D and my mother (who has a birthday in a later in the month).  It was pretty uneventful, so I'll just give an abbreviated TR.  Mrs. Fly made her usual assortment of appetizers, and she decided to order some Greek food for a nice change of pace.  I don't think I had Greek food in like 6 months. Unfortunately, the food from the local Greek place was meh.  Fortunately, the three different desserts (cheesecake, banana cream pie and chocolate cream pie) more than made up for it.  As you may have guessed from previous posts, I love trying all kinds of different foods from different regions of the world.  I have some friends who basically only eat chicken breast, burgers and pizza, and I just think they are missing out big time.  It's like just drinking Old Milwaukee your whole life - there are plenty of great (and better) ways to get a good buzz going.  Some people eat to live - I live to eat (later post).  Oh btw...  Doublefly 1 - Food 6.  I think that "FAIL" picture is pretty ironic, since getting at the food is not my problem.

A few posts ago, I said something like there was "negligible risk" of losing a lot of money playing 1/2.  This has been true in my experience, as even when I run bad, there are enough bad players who give you "free" money to compensate.  I think I was 20 BIs under EV at one point last year and it never really got horrifically bad.  Well, apparently I was wrong. 

The other day one of the better regulars from 1/2, Newmanmi, posted the following graph, which was his worst day ever.  I have no idea how someone who wins @ over 3ptbb can be down almost 50 BIs in one day.  The other day, another 1/2 reg was having a bad day, chased his losses, and posted a 30 hour session where he played 21+K hands and lost over $8K (that's 40 buy-ins).  I suppose no matter how experienced you are, depending on your style of play, you can always lose more money than you expect.  That's all part of playing poker.  I'll write more about downswings in a later post.

I thought the timing of my post and the timing of these huge downswing revelations was "funny."  I pictured the following exchange and had a good laugh.  I consider Newmanmi a good player and colleague (even tho he likes to berate me in the chats) and we both post regularly in the forums.  His blog link is on the right if you're interested - he got a cute little puppy recently.  Imo it's just a ploy to pick up chicks.

WHAT'S FOR DINNER?

The sushi in our area is horrifically mediocre and absurdly overpriced for the quality.  The top rated place in our area always smells of dirty dish rags.  WTF?!?  Mmmm... that's what I want to be smelling when I have sushi.  That's got to be up there with smelling feces in a brothel - no thank you.  Not that I would know anything about that...

So whenever Mrs. Fly needs to pick up some exotic cooking ingredients, we head over to the Asian supermarket.  We found this sushi stall there, and normally I wouldn't want cheap sushi, but it was surprisingly adequate.  That's actually high praise from me for stall sushi, because I've eaten at some of the best sushi places in NYC.  Anyway, the platter above was $50, it tastes just as good (if not better) as the local restaurants, and we get a ton of fish!  Not sure if I should be proud or ashamed, but that's just for me and Mrs. Fly - we "share."  BTW, I weigh 2.5x what Mrs. Fly does.  I can put away an absurd amount of raw fish when I'm in the mood.  In case you're keeping score at home, that's DoubleFly 1 - Food 5.

My first day of 6max went pretty well.  I only played like 3k hands, but it was enough for me to feel comfortable.  Running in God mode always helps.  Unfortunately, the few tables of full ring I played was cooler after cooler.  I didn't make much money, but I'm pretty pleased overall.  It look me about an hour to get used to looking at the 6 max tables and my new HUD layout.  I probably averaged only 10 tables or so, but I'll slowly add as I feel more comfortable.  People seemed to be giving my bets a lot of credit - maybe my uber nit reputation from FR precedes me.  The play is definitely looser than 6handed on a full ring table.  The only annoying thing was how when a fish sat out, one or two players at the table would sit out as well.  Seriously, wtf is that?!?  You see that sometimes in full ring too, but you notice a lot more when the rest of the table is forced to play 3 handed.  Anyway, now I just need to get some hands in.

POKER

I was thinking about win rates the other day. Most of the good multitabling full ring regulars win at 2.5 to 4.0 big bets per 100 hands ("ptbb"). I just find it amazing that there is no ONE "right" way to play. There are so many different playing styles that can achieve those win rates. You can play anywhere from 10-35% of hands, have a pre flop raise of 6 to 25%, 3bet 2 to 8%, and have an aggression factor of 1.5 to 5. Most people gravitate towards playing 15/11/4/3, but there are definitely plenty of differences in playing styles among the regulars.
I strongly believe that if someone were to "put everything together", it is possible to win at 6-8 ptbb or higher in the full ring game. Unfortunately, I don't think anyone's been able to beat 2/4 for better than 4 ptbb or so. Not sure if this is because people who are good inevitably move to 6max (because there aren't many full ring games past 5/10), so there's a sample bias. Or people stop trying once they get above 3 or 4 ptbb because that's the best anyone's done.

It's amazing to me that all the good players are clustered around this range.  1ptbb is winning 2 big blinds per 100 hands.  That's basically stealing an extra set of blinds every 8 orbits, or light 3 betting successfully every 25 orbits, 3 barreling someone with air every 60 orbits, making a good river laydown every 130 orbits, etc.  You get the idea. It's just amazing to me there isn't more variability in winnings.

Poker is a zero sum game, with more losers than winners because of the rake. This was the case 5 years ago when the games were "good," and this is the case now.  As players get better, it'll be interesting to see if win rates start converging to zero (as some fear), or if the standouts at each level will still rise above the pack.

So I've come to the conclusion that playing 1/2 is bad for my health.  It's one thing to lose to other good players, but losing money to mediocre players is really starting to wear on me.  And the amounts involved are so small that I can play all day and not have a gain or loss that I care about.  I guess I should be happy to make small amounts of money with a negligible risk of a big loss while I'm working on a few things.  But more importantly, I don't think I'm learning as much as I can from just playing my limits - the game dynamic at 1/2 Rush is just so odd.  I still have no idea how those nits win.  Normally, I like figuring things out but I'm not sure it's going to be lucrative for me to do so.  Barring some unusual lethargy, starting tomorrow I'm going to go back to the 2/4+ tables and practice there.  Since there aren't enough full ring tables during the day, I'm going to start playing some 6 max as well.  Playing 6max will also help me transition out of the graveyard shift, as there are plenty of 6max tables during the day.

I wasn't planning to start 6max until the second half of the year.  But I wasn't expecting the 2/4+ full ring games to have dried up as much as it has - the last two nights, there were only 10-14 tables.  Multi-table tournaments are still a work in progress.  I could try and play a bunch of single table tournaments, as I think I could do pretty well in those.  We'll see how things go.  I have one month before the the family Disney trip, so I want to do some serious grinding before then.

HANDS

This hand made me laugh for some reason (probably because I won).  The only hand real hands I could put villain on (who seemed fishy and aggressive) where he would donk barrel like this was 66, 2x, an overpair or a flush draw.  But a lot of people just opt for a check-raise with those hands.  And of course there are tons of overcards, missed draws, etc. in his donking range.  I really can't remember the last time I won 94bbs with just a pair of fours.  But the way Rush has been going, I'm shocked an 8 didn't come on the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($219.35)
BB ($188.40)
UTG ($221)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($475.40)
Hero (MP2) ($292.75)
MP3 ($1062.70)
CO ($242.80)
Button ($414.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4♣, 4♠
3 folds, Hero bets $7, 4 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($15) 2♠, 2♥, 6♥ (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero calls $15

Turn: ($45) 7♠ (2 players)
BB bets $45, Hero calls $45

River: ($135) J♠ (2 players)
BB bets $121.40 (All-In), Hero calls $121.40

Total pot: $377.80 $3
Rake:
Main pot: $377.80 between BB and Hero, won by Hero

Results:
BB had A♥, 8♠ (one pair, twos).
Hero had 4♣, 4♠ (two pair, fours and twos).
Outcome: Hero won $374.80

Today is D's b'day!  He's two years old.  We'll have a party for him this weekend.  My favorite nickname for him is "Sunny D" (like the drink), because he's usually a very happy kid. He has this cute little walk where he swings his arms - what we call his "happy walk" - and he walks around the house like he pays the bills or something. But lately I've been calling him Snot Boy. He hasn't gotten a lot of colds this winter, but he's had a lot of nasal mucous discharge. So much so that there are times when I don't look at him for a while and all of a sudden, his upper lip looks like Niagara Falls.  One time, he came into my office while I was starting to close down a session and he wanted some Gatorade.  I handed it to him, and when I finally turned to look at him, the snot was free flowing into the Gatorade bottle as he drank.  I guess that's one way of claiming the rest of the bottle.

If the discharge was black, he'd look like Hitler. Which is kind of funny because when he was little, we used to call him Baby Hitler. We look nothing like Germans, but for some reason he bore a slight facial resemblance to a young Adolf. And his favorite thing to say was "eich eich."  He'd go running around the house lifting up his arm and saying "eich eich."  Zeig heil!

Yeah, I know that's in poor taste to call your kid Baby Hitler, but we just call it like we see it. Fwiw, he looks a little less like him now. So before I get more hate mail, we love our boys. But if you can't make fun of and laugh at the people in your own family (yourself, your spouse or your kids), then you have no sense of humor.

POKER

I have now played over 40K hands of 1/2 Rush.  My win rate is a lowly (but barely respectable) 4 bb (2 ptbb).  I've been a little frustrated how difficult it is to beat all the Rush nits (people who play 12/10 and below).  One of the main reasons I decided to work out at 1/2 Rush is because I thought it was an environment that was more conducive to practicing a LAG (loose aggressive) style.  I think this will help me when I move to 6max - especially late position play (and it couldn't hurt).  When there are a lot of tight players, playing looser is better.  But here's something interesting from my database (altho 40K hands is still a small sample).  How is it that the highest win rates are for those people with PFR (pre flop raise) of 5.5-7.7?!?

If someone told me this was possible in a game of NLHE poker, I would have said they were lying for sure.  They are obviously losing the blind battle (as they don't raise enough to recoup the blinds they lose).  And I just have no idea how they get paid off on their big hands.  There are obviously fish in the games, but I don't think there are so many who will pay them off.  And I have twice as much opportunity to get to any fish because I play twice as many hands.  Let's just hope this is some bizarre sample size error - otherwise, I'll have to go back to the drawing board.  Maybe I'm kicking ass with my win rate of 4, while the rest of the LAGs are losing at -10.34bb and the TAGs are losing at -17.75bb.  I'm just confused.