Saturday, January 29, 2011

[As previously mentioned, Mpethybridge from 2+2 was nice enough to be my first Guest Poster.  He is a principal contributor/moderator to the SSFR Stats Thread and is a Poker Coach specializing in database analysis.]

In analyzing player databases, one of the biggest leaks common to most full ring players is excessive blind losses.

What is excessive? This question is open to debate. I normally set an arbitrary bright line between leak/not a leak at -20bb/100 hands in the small blind, and -40bb/100 hands in the big blind.

I'll stress the arbitrariness of this bright line. My rationale for these figures is twofold:

1. Each figure is 40% of the blinds you post, which means if these are your blind losses, you're recovering 60% of the blinds you post. That's pretty solid blind performance.

2. The higher you go above these figures the harder it is to construct a win rate above 5bb/100 hands (2.5PTBB). Your winnings from the non-blind positions are effectively capped. Just as an example, the vast majority of winning regulars win on the button somewhere in the vicinity of 30bb/100 hands. I see a few standout regulars in the 32-35 range, but most everybody is between 28 and 32.

If you turn in a performance that is average among all winning regulars in all of your non-blind positions, and you have blind losses at -60bb/100 orbits, then you'll have a win rate of about 5bb/100 hands. Blind losses above this are cutting into your winnings.

In 6 max, the situation is even more extreme, because you lose 3 non-blind positions from which full ring players extract profits to offset blind losses. Thus, in 6 max, loss rates from the blinds are 20-30% lower than those of full ring players (6 max win rates in the non-blind positions are typically a bit higher than at FR for each position).

So plugging blind play leaks becomes a big part of what I do. When analyzing a player's blind play, there are really only two filters that are necessary to expose most players' major leaks:

Continued Monday (cold calling leaks) and next Saturday (light 3betting leaks)...  [prepare yourself for a stats onslaught]

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